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Remnant Low Positioned Over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh: Heavy Rains Till Weekend

September 8, 2023 2:56 PM |

The remnant of low pressure area, which earlier formed over Bay of Bengal (BoB), is now lying over Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh.  A broad cyclonic circulation is covering interior Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh. An east-west shear zone is also extending from Odisha to North Madhya Maharashtra, cutting across Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Flanks of this weather system cover pars of  Maharashtra on the left and Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh on the right. The forward section reach border areas of North Gujarat and East Rajasthan. This weather system has revived the monsoon activity over central parts, West Coast and Indo Gangetic plains.

It is slow moving weather system and is likely to linger on over the same region with slight westward shift, covering large parts of Madhya Pradesh.  An east-west axis of dilatation along with a convergence zone in the forward section will keep the monsoon vigorous over Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra, and Konkan region. The weather system is unlikely to reach parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, although the peripheral clouds of the main system may cause isolated weather activity on the outers of these two states.

The remnant low pressure area as cyclonic circulation is likely to retrace its path, with a slow eastward shift, sometime tomorrow and later.  The spread and intensity of weather activity will shrink on 10th and 11thSeptember.  When the system reaches parts of Odisha, sometime around 11th/ 12thSeptember, may get reinforcement from the BoB.  This circulation may become active once again and get a push to recommence monsoon activity over the central parts. The current weather cycle will get repeated for a similar duration. So, after a brief slow down between 10th and 11thSeptember, monsoon will become active over the central parts for the subsequent 4-5days.

Daily monsoon rainfall was on the decline for the last few weeks, leading to dry core monsoon month of August. This continued during opening days of September, as well. There is a reversal now and the Pan-India monsoon rainfall is likely to catch up or rather exceed the daily normal, at least for 7-8 days between 07th and 20thSeptember. This will reduce the monsoon deficit, which hangs around 11% of LPA for the last one week. Month of September will not be disappointing like August. Central and Eastern parts of the country can expect decent monsoon activity, turning vigorous at times.

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