The month of September is promising to churn out normal rainfall. After the carnage in August, which left an all-time record low rainfall, the scare for the season was genuine. September also started with jitters in the first week but recovered adequately during the subsequent 2 weeks. As of now, the month has recorded rainfall of 125.5mm against the normal of 116.5mm, about 8% above the average.
The seasonal rainfall figure continues to be ‘below normal’ with an overall shortfall of 8% of long period average (LPA). The month of July was decent enough to cover the 10% shortfall of June and still finish with a surplus of 5% rainfall, halfway through the season. However, the core monsoon month of August massacred the monsoon drive and ended with a large countrywide deficit of 36%, the highest since 1901. This also left the season lingering with a nearly drought-like scarcity of 10% rainfall which further climbed to 11% during the first week of September.
Somehow, a pair of low-pressure areas, evolving over the Bay of Bengal in quick succession and moving across the core monsoon zone, in tandem, acted as saviour. Courtesy of decent rains in September, the danger of drought, looming large at one time was averted. The remaining days of September may gather normal or slightly above-normal rainfall, on a daily basis to close within decent margins. However, the monsoon bursts are more likely to be focused on the eastern and central parts of the country. Pockets of heavy rainfall may be limited to Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Assam and the foothills of Bihar.