Severe cyclone Mandous has weakened to a tropical storm, the lowest grade of storms. On the expected lines, dry and cold air intrusion led to the wear out and some more energy is likely to be depleted before it makes landfall, late tonight. On its way to North Tamil Nadu, skirting northeast shore of Sri Lanka, it has deluged the coastal stations like, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Mullaittivu and Jaffna. Peripherals of storm has lashed capital city of Tamil Nadu, last night and the rains continue non stop.
Cyclonic storm is centred around 11.5deg North and 81.2deg East at 1130hr, today morning, about 160 km south-southeast of Chennai. It has moved northwest with a speed of about 12-15kmph during the last 6hr. Heat potential remains reasonable but will be offset by moderate to high wind shear of 20-25Kts, as it approaches the coast. Drop in the energy levels will steadily decrease its intensity. Terrain influence in terms of friction and entrainment will restrain the moisture levels.
Notwithstanding, slight weakening of the storm, Mandous will still cross the coast, close to Puducherry as cyclonic storm, around midnight or later. Steering winds of the tropical ridge will move the storm, more of northwestward, gaining latitude and bringing it dangerously close to Puducherry-Chennai axis by late evening today. Landfall of the storm will be complete during wee hours of 10th Dec 2022.
Heavy to very heavy rains, accompanied with roaring winds will batter the coastline from Nagapattinam to Chennai, across Cuddalore, Karaikal and Puducherry. Heavy rains and squally winds will penetrate and reach south coastal Andhra Pradesh smashing Nellore, Ongole, Kavali and Bapatla.
Land interaction will squeeze the storm after landfall and dissipation will begin anytime tomorrow around noon hours. The storm will let loose its grip and spread out over large parts of South Peninsula. Heavy rains and strong winds are expected over interiors of Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and breach the borderline of South Interior Karnataka till late evening. The remnant of the storm as cyclonic circulation will move across the Peninsula and reach Arabian Sea in the subsequent 48hr.