Frequency and intensity of Western Disturbances remained low during winter season leading to deficient rainfall over Western Himalayas. Few active Western Disturbances approached Western Himalayas in the month of January leading to widespread rain and snow and subsequently drop in temperatures over Northern and central parts of the country. There was no active Western disturbance in February. Month of February was one of the hottest Februarys in history.
First half of March remained almost dry. There was a sudden increase in intensity of Western disturbance during second half of March leading to good amount of rain and snow over The Hills. Induced cyclonic circulation over Northwest India led to widespread rain and thunderstorm over northwest and Central India. As the intensity and frequency of Western disturbance increased during second half of March, except Uttarakhand all the hilly states are rain deficient. Himachal Pradesh is deficient by 32%, Jammu and Kashmir by 44% and Ladakh by 54%. Uttarakhand is surplus by 56%.
Two successive Western disturbances are expected to approach Western Himalayas during next three to four days. There may be light to moderate rain and thundershower over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and isolated over Ladakh until April 5th. Upper reaches of these states of may witness light snowfall during this period.
Weather will remain dry for at least next 4 to 5 days. A fresh Western disturbance will approach Western Himalayas on April 10.
