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Twin Storms Coming Up Over Indian Seas, Arabian Sea To Lead Specter

October 20, 2023 1:47 PM |

Both the Indian Seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, have become active basin for stormy activities.  Both sides of the Indian coastline are likely to witness tropical storm, first of this post monsoon season.   Arabian Sea will take the lead to churn a cyclone as early as, on this weekend. Chances are growing for Bay of Bengal, as well, to follow the suit and host a storm by early next week.

Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation followed by a low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea, a depression has formed over west-central Arabian Sea.  The depression is centered around 9°N and 61°E, about 1000 km away from Somali coast.  The system is having compact low level cyclonic circulation surrounded by deep convective cloud clusters. The depression is in the favourable region for further rapid intensification, with warm sea surface temperature (30°-31°C), light to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 Kts) and typical equatorward outflow.

Depression is likely to  intensify fast in to a cyclonic storm which will be named ‘Tej’, as proposed by India. The storm will move northwest away from Indian coastline and head for Yemen coast. Tej is expected to make landfall around late night 23rd Oct or early 24th Oct 2023. Defying other predictions, GFS model continue to track the cyclone, dangerously close to Yemen-Oman coast, moving northeastward.  In this case, the storm will enter the open waters of Northwest Arabian Sea again and head for Indus Delta region of Pakistan. More clarity will evolve after the system intensifies to a cyclonic storm.

Under the influence of another cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over south-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.  Low pressure will consolidate and move slowly towards west-central and adjoining northwest BoB. It is likely to become a depression on 22nd Oct and strengthen further to a deep depression , the next day.  There are promising signs of this system developing in to a cyclonic storm, sometime around 24thOctober.  Further, concrete assertions can be made, only after the low pressure turns in to a depression. This storm, if developed, will be named ‘Hamoon’.

Simultaneous occurrence of tropical storm on either side of Indian coastline may not be observed very often.  But, the storms, when formed,  will be separated by a large distance, in excess of 2500 km. Therefore, being far from the reach of each other, Tej and Hamoon will traverse their track, independently.  Also, development of storms in the Indian Seas, quite early in the season, leave ample chance to have a repeat, before close of this year.

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