Mumbai has experienced relatively warm winters so far. January is the best and the coldest month, wherein minimum temperature drops to mid-teens quite often. Even, month of December has an average of about 18°C. However, the lowest temperature so far, as recorded by airport observatory Santacruz was 19.4°C on 13th and 16th December 2023. Rest, all the days, it clocked above 20°C. Today morning, this observatory recorded the highest minimum of last 2 weeks. The mercury rose to 23.6°C, huge 6°C above the normal. Earlier, on 05thDecember, the city measured a low of 23.8°C. But, there is seasonal progressive drop of mercury expected from the start o month to the middle and go on till the end. This feature has been missing.
There is no active western disturbance, affecting the northern plains and the hills, simultaneously, so far. Only weak weather systems have moved across the mountains, except the last one on 16th and 17th Dec, which spread a blanket of snow over Kashmir Valley, but only in the mid and higher reaches. The lower hills did not have rains even. The cold winds in the wake of these systems have not been penetrating deep in the plains and further down to South Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra. Anticyclone over Rajasthan has been wavering a lot, with uncertain and weak wind pattern. It is not conducive enough to take the cold from the mountain slopes right up to the central parts.
Significant drop of mercury level has been rather confined to small pockets of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi. And that too, it happened for a brief period. Sustained spread and intensity of cold gives amiss, so far over northern plains. Wind pattern is not likely to become any better for chilly conditions, as another interruption on account of weak system is expected for Rajasthan on 22nd Dec or so. Another mild western disturbance is likely to arrive over the mountains between 23rd and 25thDec 2023. Conditions are going to remain unsettled for the next, at least about one week. Drop of temperatures over Maharashtra , including Mumbai, will be restricted to just a degree or two, over the next 3 days.
Last year, Mumbai had lowest minimum of about 15°C, around Christmas. Otherwise also, the mercury did hover around 16°C on few days in the 2nd half of December. This December, so far, Mumbai has yet to find sweeping winds across from the plains of North India. City has been observing either warm winds coming from the sea or more of easterly or southeasterly winds from the land. Persistent northerly or northeasterly winds are needed to transport the cold from the north, uninterrupted to parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan. Mumbai may have to continue, without the typical wintery flavor, at least for a week or even more.
