Weather Forecast September 17: Monsoon Withdrawal Nears West Rajasthan, Heavy Rain Likely Over Northwest, Northeast and South India
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Conditions are becoming favourable for Southwest Monsoon withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan around September 19.
- Rainfall over Gujarat is expected to decrease as the low-pressure area shifts towards the adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea.
- Isolated heavy rainfall may occur over Haryana, Punjab, Northeast India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
- Rain and thunderstorms are expected across several parts of north, central, east and southern India during the next 24 hours.
- Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.
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The Weather Systems Over The Country
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Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19.
The low-pressure area has shifted from Southeast Pakistan to Saurashtra and the adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea. Its associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 9.4 km above mean sea level and tilts southwards with height.
The monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through the centre of the low-pressure area over Saurashtra and the adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea, Deesa, Guna, Satna, Daltonganj, Jamshedpur and Digha before extending southeastwards to the Northwest Bay of Bengal.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Coastal Odisha at about 3.1 km above mean sea level.
Another upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas at about 1.5 km above mean sea level.
The trough from South Interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar across Tamil Nadu persists at approximately 0.9 km above mean sea level.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over North Haryana and adjoining areas at about 1.5 km above mean sea level.
The earlier trough from Bihar to North Odisha across Jharkhand and the Western Disturbance over Jammu have become less marked.
Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours
During the last 24 hours, rain or thundershowers occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Saurashtra and Kutch, South Interior Karnataka, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
Rain occurred at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, East Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Konkan and Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Light to moderate rain with a few heavy spells occurred over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Mizoram.
Light to moderate rain occurred over Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
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Light rain occurred over Haryana, Kerala and Coastal Odisha.
Significant Rainfall Amounts
- Bengaluru, Hut Bay and Tuni: 6 cm
- Lengpui: 10 cm
- Port Blair, Ajmer, Minicoy and Dhubri: 2 cm each
The highest maximum temperature reported over the country was 39.6°C at Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. The lowest minimum temperature over the plains was 17.0°C at Haflong in Assam.
Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal at a few places over Rayalaseema and at isolated places over Telangana and South Interior Karnataka. Above-normal temperatures also prevailed over parts of Northeast India, Maharashtra, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Forecast
During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Haryana and Punjab. Thunderstorms and lightning are also possible.
Light to moderate rain may occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan. Isolated rain or thunderstorms are possible over West Rajasthan.
Rainfall will decrease over Gujarat as the low-pressure area moves over the adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea. However, isolated rain and thunderstorms may continue over Gujarat Region, Saurashtra and Kutch. Fairly widespread rain is likely over Konkan and Goa.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms may occur over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. Rainfall may become more widespread over East Madhya Pradesh.
Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may affect Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. Fairly widespread rain is expected over Gangetic West Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms may occur over Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha.
Fairly widespread rain may continue over Kerala and Lakshadweep, with isolated heavy spells over Kerala. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over Tamil Nadu.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms are likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Interior Karnataka. Strong surface winds may affect parts of Andhra Pradesh.
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