Week Long Active Monsoon Conditions For Delhi, Rainfall To Surpass Monthly Normal

Delhi is likely to have extended wet spell lasting for about a week or even longer.  The capital city will experience mixed intensity and duration of rainfall during this bout. Heavy spell for 2-3 days will lash the city and suburbs during this period.  The base observatory Safdarjung has recorded 154.7mm rainfall against the normal of 195.8mm. The shortfall of 41.1mm is expected to be made good, well before the close of the month.

Delhi has experienced only 2 rainy days in July, when the rainfall was 2.5mm or more. The 1^st day of month was deluged with 117mm and another 30mm on 16^th July.  Very light rain with amount varying between trace and 2mm was observed on 8 days.  Above normal day temperatures, coupled with high humidity raising the discomfort index, remained the hallmark of the month, so far. 

Monsoon trough, the main driver of seasonal rains, was dragged far to the south  by the monsoon low pressure and cyclonic circulations. This regular feature dampened the rain spirit on most occasions. Courtesy, 2 good spells of rain, the city has received adequate rainfall, commensurate with the average, statistically. More rains are in the offing.

Monsoon trough is in the process of shifting northward. It is expected to be somewhat close to its normal position over the next 2 days. This seasonal feature is likely to run very close, nearly through and through, the capital city, between 20^th and 23^rd July.   The trough will once again shift southward on 24^th and 25th July, albeit not far enough to miss the weather activity. Thereafter, the tendency of northward shift will resume again for continuation of weather activity on subsequent 2-3 days. Passage of a western disturbance during the week, will add to the activity of monsoon trough.

Moderate rain and thundershowers are expected over the capital city and neighborhood between 20^th and 27^thJuly. There is an outside chance of having short and sporadic shower today as well. Oscillation of the monsoon trough over the next one week will make it more intense and expansive on the remaining days. The activity is likely to be more powerful between 20^th&23^rd and again between 26^th&28^thJuly.  The total rainfall during this period will suffice to achieve the monthly target, revised recently to 195.8mm from the earlier score of 187.3mm till last year.