The tenure of the current Legislative Assembly of Bihar expires in November this year. In the Bihar polls, termed as the "mother of all elections” by Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all set to fight the ruling united Janata Dal party.
This crucial election year, along with economy watchers even Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been hoping for a normal Monsoon. Courtesy - Bihar’s contentious history of incumbency loss during a drought year in the state, followed by significant drop in agricultural production.
For instance, in the year 2005 Bihar had received -24% of the normal Monsoon rains. The farm production dropped by 14% and the capita income came down by 1.5%. This was the year when Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was finally dethroned in Bihar, after an uninterrupted run of 15 years.
Five years later, Bihar once again witnessed deficient rainfall to the tune of -22%. However, the agricultural sector in Bihar grew by a whopping 20% in the financial year 2010-11. Nitish Kumar regained his throne with thumping majority, in coalition with the Bharatiya Janata Party.
It is true that we can’t judge an election verdict based on just the agricultural production. An array of variable are generally involved with an electoral outcome. But yes, we can say that fall in farm production leads to rural distress as prices of food items are pushed up, and the cascading effect is loss of faith in the ruling party.
Bihar is a state with 89% of rural population and 76% of the people directly dependent on agriculture. Consequently, economists and experts believe that it is very obvious that the mood of the people here will depend on how the farm sector fares. But, there is another argument in this scenario. The size of average landholdings in the state is very low. In fact, 83% of all the holdings are not more than a hectare. This essentially means that Bihar is mostly dominated by small and marginal farmers. It’s a common understanding that they suffer less, due to fall in farm production.
Performance of Monsoon in Bihar this year
Bihar, like most of other Eastern states, has witnessed poor Monsoon rains so far. Consequently, the cumulative rainfall deficiency has mounted up to 30%. This means, Bihar has received 30% less rains than the long period average of the state. But, this year Monsoonal rains in Bihar has been well spaced, both in time and intensity. Timely rainfall and special distribution is actually beneficial for the crops.
Paddy is the main Kharif crop in Bihar, which is at present in the vegetative stage and moving towards the flowering stage. Since the state has not witnessed any long dry spell, crops have not been hampered. Therefore, we can expect a normal farm produce this year. Though BJP’s prospects look better this year, largely normal agricultural produce might prove beneficial for Nitish Kumar. For now, all we can do is patiently wait and watch the fate of Bihar.
image credit - infoelections.com
