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Southwest Monsoon: Kharif Crop Outlook 2017-18

Southwest Monsoon: Kharif Crop Outlook 2017-18

02:36 PM


After much speculation, Monsoon 2017 had finally made onset over Indian mainland of Kerala on May 30. Presently, the western arm of Monsoon is progressing at a faster pace and has now reached Coastal Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, while advancement of the eastern arm of the Monsoon remained comparatively sluggish is yet to cover remaining parts of Northeast India.

As on June 12, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Valsad, Nashik, Parbhani, Adilabad, Narsapur, Paradip, Digha, Kolkata, and Krishnanagar.

Monsoon has finally made an onset over Mumbai along with parts of Maharashtra, Telangana few areas of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal. During the same time period, it is also likely to enter some parts of East India.

Skymet Weather is predicting that performance of Southwest Monsoon will remain satisfactory in the month of June. Particularly, places along the West Coast are likely to record good rains.

As on June 12, countrywide cumulative rainfall is surplus by 18%.

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Out of the last 66 years, there are 18 years with normal Monsoon having rainfall between 90%- 100%. During normal Monsoon, out of 650 districts, 10% districts are at risk of drought. Gujarat is the most vulnerable state as around 60% districts of the state have more than 50% chances of being in drought. So is the case with Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka.

Indian agriculture is largely dependent on Monsoon rains. Only 35% of the agriculture land has reliable irrigation source. But this year, as far as reservoir status is concerned, we are at a comfortable stage as compared to average storage of last 10 years.

Around 65% of crop area is completely dependent on Monsoon rains as they are not equipped with methods of manual irrigation. As per the forecast, there is no major threat seen to rainfed areas as Monsoon rains are going to be average.

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Timely onset of Monsoon over the region will help in timely sowing and restoring the normal acreage under different crop, though 5-10% acreage shift may be seen in few crops due to better price realization in 2016 in certain crops. Normal rains in July will help in vegetative phase of kharif crops, however expectation of development of El Niño in later part of the Monsoon may decrease the rainfall activity which will have an adverse impact on the crop during maturation stage. But it is too early to say because rains activity will largely depend on the development of El Niño and IOD conditions.

Image credit: Nithil Dennis

To download the Kharif Crop Outlook 2017-18 please click here