Low Pressure Area To Form Over Bay Of Bengal: May Turn Into Maiden Storm Of The Year

Key Takeaways:

• A low-pressure area is likely to develop over the North Andaman Sea within the next 48 hours.
• The system may reach depression/deep depression intensity over the Bay of Bengal by September 22 and could strengthen further into 2026’s first tropical cyclone.
• Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal potentially face a cyclone threat, though the eventual track and intensity remain uncertain.
• If the system becomes a cyclonic storm, it will be named Arnab, a name contributed by Bangladesh.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

A cyclonic circulation is persisting over northern parts of Thailand and the adjoining Myanmar region. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the North Andaman Sea within the next 48 hours. The low pressure will move over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal and intensify into a depression/deep depression by 22nd September. The timing and climatology make it a favourite to become the first tropical cyclone of this year.

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It is a little premature to comment on the intensity and track of the weather system. Pending intensification of the system into a depression by mid-week next, subsequent prognostication will become easier. Notwithstanding any further details, such weather systems do pose a threat to the eastern coastline. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal straightaway bear the risk of a cyclone strike. Of course, the strength, track and timelines will be predictable after the weather system is conceived and gets manifested with typical features in satellite imagery.

The pre-monsoon season did not have any tropical storm in the Indian Seas. The last storm in Indian waters was ‘Ditwah’, which struck the island nation of Sri Lanka on 28th November 2025 and went on record to become the worst natural disaster for the country in the last two decades. As it is, the first storm of the season, irrespective of its timing, needs to be treated with a lot of caution.

The timing of the storm and the process of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon being coincident will have a bearing on the smooth conduct of withdrawal, more so from the central and eastern parts of the country. The maiden storm of this year, if it takes shape, will be named ‘Arnab’, as suggested by the participating country Bangladesh.

Editor’s verification: WMO’s official North Indian Ocean naming list confirms Arnab as the Bangladesh-proposed name in the applicable sequence. RSMC New Delhi assigns names once a system reaches cyclonic-storm intensity. WHO also confirms that Cyclonic Storm Ditwah made landfall on Sri Lanka’s eastern coast on 28 November 2025.

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