The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Alwar and Bikaner. We can clearly see in the figure above that the western arm of NLM, passing through Veraval and Surat, in Gujarat, has been stagnant since 15th of June. Consequently, the state has not received any rain and the cumulative deficiency has mounted to 92%. Saurashtra and Kutch is also facing a deficit of 83%.
By 15th June, Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. A poor scenario is in sight for Gujarat as Monsoon rain over the state has been delayed beyond a limit of repair.
In 2013, Kutch received 64% excess rainfall while the plains recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. Only light rain is in the offing for the state and looking at the present scenario it could be the driest state this El Nino year. As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a powerful El Nino spells trouble for India, which often faces below normal rain and drought.
After the Monsoon foreshadow released in April, Skymet came out with its update of long range forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2014 on the 4th of July. According to it, the rainfall figure of 91% for the country as a whole is worrisome as the inbuilt error of -4% increases the chance of drought in the country to 60%.
As can be seen in the picture above, the regional distribution seemed even more alarming, with 80% chances of drought in Northwest India (where Gujarat comes), 75% in Central India and 50% over South India.
Gujarat awaits Monsoon
With temperatures around 5⁰C above normal, Gujarat yearns for Monsoon rain. On Wednesday, maximum temperatures in Ahmedabad and Baroda were 5⁰C above normal average at 39.9⁰C and 38⁰C, respectively. Rajkot was also 4⁰C above normal at 38.2⁰C.
Looking at the temperature profile we can say that the temperatures here are not exceeding 40⁰C like in Rajasthan and northwest Madhya Pradesh. This could be attributed to the free flow of moist south westerly winds coming from the sea. But in absence of any obstruction, these winds are not bringing enough rain.
As a precursor to Monsoon onset, the state could receive very light rain in the coming days.
