The Monsoon is racing to record above-normal rains for the season 2020. A couple of saturating spells in September can even better this score. The month of August 2020 has been the rainiest in the last four decades. This has saved the season from the curse of July cast earlier halfway through way to the season. The Monsoon tally stands at 110 % (Above normal).
Frequent spells of incessant rains over Central parts particularly Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh is raising concerns for the health of standing Kharif crops. So far there is only partial adverse impact but any excess rains from here on may become counter-productive in some areas. The rainfall pattern of the next fortnight will bring more clarity.
Agriculture has emerged as a key focus area amidst the dwindling economy phase due to COVID-19 lockdown. The government also extended a stimulus package to bolster infrastructure for retaining growth and development of agriculture. The silver lining even during difficult times has been the superior performance of the farming sector. A record Rabi harvest raised earlier the food grain production to 295.67 million tonnes, the highest in the past 4 years 2016-2019. A good Monsoon this season is promising a bumper Kharif and projecting agriculture growth at 2.5 per cent for 2020-21.
A record number of five low-pressure areas formed in the Bay of Bengal during August and therefore, the month is ending with a huge surplus of 25% rainfall. Monsoon systems are forming on either side of the coast, over the North Bay of Bengal and south-east Arabian sea as well. These systems will keep the Monsoon active during the week.
Active Monsoon conditions are going to prevail over plains of North India for the entire week. The plains will see more action to start with and hills will catch up later. Rajasthan will be the main beneficiary with eastern half seeing more activity from 31st August to 1st September while the west Rajasthan will observe widespread rain and thundershowers on 2nd 3rd and 4th September. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, and Uttar Pradesh will witness scattered rains and thundershowers throughout the week with heavy rainfall at many places. Heavy rains are also likely over Jammu Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand between 2nd and 5th of September.
East and North-East India
A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over North Bay of Bengal on 31st August. Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal will experience rain thundershowers from 31st August till 2nd of September and gradually reduce thereafter. A second peak for Bihar is expected on 5th and 6th of September which may even extend further also. North-East India will observe light to moderate rains and thundershowers between 31st August till 3rd of September. Heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Sikkim on 4th, 5th and 6th of September.
The week will commence on a soft note for central parts. The appearance of a cyclonic circulation over the north Bay of Bengal will bring in rains over Odisha and Chhattisgarh on 1st and 2nd September and later covering parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra between 3rd and 6th September. Gujarat, Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra will remain less active during this week.
After remaining nearly silent during last week Kerala, Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka will observe an increase in Monsoon activity. Kerala and coastal Karnataka will experience heavy rains and thundershowers almost throughout the week. Bengaluru will also have decent showers on most days during this period. Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh will also receive a fair amount of rains from 2nd till 6th of September.
It's going to be a rainy week for Delhi NCR. The rains are going to be more intense between 1st and 4th September. Light to moderate showers will continue even on other days also. Day temperatures will remain in the mid-30s hovering around 33 degrees Celsius.
Generally, partly cloudy sky with warm and humid conditions are likely during the week. Light to moderate rains and showers are expected during evening and night on most days. The maximum and minimum temperatures will hover around 36 degree and 27 degrees centigrade, respectively.