Frail Monsoon Week For Delhi: Weak Conditions May Extend To Next Week as Well

Key Takeaways:

• Delhi is likely to witness a prolonged dry spell with no significant rainfall over the next 10 days.
• Maximum temperatures are expected to remain between 36°C and 37°C despite strong surface winds.
• A cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan may bring only isolated light showers between July 21 and July 23.
• A fresh Bay of Bengal weather system around July 24 could revive monsoon activity over Delhi during the last week of July.
• Forecast Valdity: Next 7-8 days.

Monsoon rains continue to remain absent over Delhi and its neighbouring regions. Consequently, daytime temperatures are on the rise. The maximum temperature touched 38°C once again after a gap of one week. However, strong surface winds today may prevent any sharp rise in temperatures. The day's maximum is expected to remain around 37°C (±1°C). Maximum temperatures are likely to stay between 36°C and 37°C throughout this week. No significant rainfall is expected during this period.

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The surface monsoon trough is currently passing through Bikaner, Churu, Lucknow, Patna and extends to Diamond Harbour in Gangetic West Bengal. Although it is positioned north of Delhi, it is not very far away. Scattered clouds associated with a western disturbance are likely to spill over into the plains of Punjab, Haryana and the peripheral areas of Delhi. These cloud patches may bring light rain over parts of Delhi during the late night or early morning hours.

Between July 15 and July 17, the monsoon trough is expected to shift slightly farther north. Except for strong surface winds, no significant weather activity is likely during this period. A cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over West Rajasthan in the lower levels between July 18 and July 20. This feature may pull the monsoon trough closer to Delhi. As a result, there is an outside chance of light drizzle or isolated sprinkles over Delhi and its suburbs between July 21 and July 23.

The base station at Safdarjung has recorded 132.2 mm of rainfall so far this July, against the normal average of 195.8 mm. The next 10 days are expected to remain largely dry, with negligible rainfall over the Delhi region. This will leave the capital with limited time to bridge the rainfall deficit before the month ends.

Safdarjung has maintained a remarkable record of above-normal July rainfall for eight consecutive years, from 2018 to 2025. That streak may be under threat this season. There is, however, a possibility of a fresh weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal around July 24. If the system moves favourably and penetrates deep inland, it could revive monsoon activity over Delhi during the last few days of July.

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