Fresh Low Pressure Area Forming: Active Monsoon Conditions Likely

Key Takeaways:

• A fresh low pressure area is likely to develop over the Northwest Bay of Bengal on September 10 and move inland by September 12.
• The system may remain active for about five days and traverse eastern and central parts of India.
• Madhya Pradesh could witness the core weather activity, while rain may extend to Delhi, East Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Telangana and parts of Gujarat.
• The upcoming system could possibly be the last weather system before the commencement of monsoon withdrawal from extreme western India.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 4 days.

The remnant of the previous low pressure area is now lying over the foothills of Central and East Uttar Pradesh, contiguous to the Nepal region. It is likely to break up over the rough terrain and, at best, may be seen as a feeble east-west trough along the foothills of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for the next 48 hours. Close on its heels, another low pressure area is likely to emerge over the Bay of Bengal to keep the monsoon activity going well over those parts.

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There is a cyclonic circulation marked over the Northwest Bay of Bengal up to mid-tropospheric levels. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to develop on 10th September 2026. The low pressure is likely to move inland partially on 11th September and completely by 12th September 2026. The low pressure will have an active life span of about five days, during which the system will traverse across the eastern and central parts of the country. The peripherals on either side of the track will also get the residual weather activity.

The cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal will have an extended trough to the north, running across Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. Under the combined influence of the remnant of the earlier low pressure area and the north-south trough, scattered rain and thundershowers are likely over Coastal Odisha, Coastal Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh on 08th & 09th September 2026. Subsequently, the formation of the low pressure area and its further westward movement will take the weather activity deep inland, stretching up to West Madhya Pradesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Delhi, the periphery of East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Telangana and some parts of Gujarat. The core weather activity will cover the entire state of Madhya Pradesh in a staggered manner. The parched land of interior Maharashtra will be the chief beneficiary, and parting monsoon showers will also cover the eastern parts of Rajasthan, maybe for a day or two.

This possibly could be the last weather system before the commencement of the withdrawal of the monsoon from the extreme western parts of the country. Though the border posts of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer, Barmer, Phalodi and Jodhpur have not received rain after mid-August, the intrusion of weather systems causing rains in the vicinity over West Madhya Pradesh and the eastern peripheries of Rajasthan is restricting the monsoon retreat. The likely low pressure area will start getting diffused, and weather activity will begin to shrink between 15th and 16th September 2026. Since the monsoon withdrawal is always retrospective, the formal announcement of the retreat may take another couple of days. The scheduled date for the monsoon to retire from the extreme western parts of Rajasthan stands at 17th September. Last year, the process had begun a little before time on 14th September 2025 and was completed by mid-October for the country.

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