Northeast Monsoon to Slow Down; Rain Activity to Ease in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh
Image: Skymetweather.com/Canva
The Northeast Monsoon 2025 began on a positive note across southern India, bringing fairly satisfactory rainfall so far. Between October 1 and November 9, the South Peninsula has received 18% surplus rainfall compared to the long-period average. Several regions have seen noteworthy excesses — Andhra Pradesh (+46%), Telangana (+65%), and Lakshadweep (+35%) have all performed well.
However, Tamil Nadu, the core recipient of the Northeast Monsoon rains, has recorded only 2% above-normal rainfall, indicating that conditions have remained close to average overall.
At present, a cyclonic circulation over the east-central Bay of Bengal is active but not favorable for rainfall enhancement over Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh. Instead, this system is likely to disrupt the inflow of moist northeasterly winds, which are vital for rain across these coastal regions.
The system is expected to move towards east Sri Lanka, while another feeble cyclonic circulation may develop over the southeast Arabian Sea, near the South Kerala coast. The interaction of these two systems could bring light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy spells over South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, and light to moderate showers across South Kerala.
In contrast, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana are likely to remain mostly dry, with limited rainfall activity over the next week. As a result, the overall rain surplus over the South Peninsula is expected to decline gradually.
Adding to the subdued outlook, a weak La Niña phase is developing over the Pacific Ocean. Historically, La Niña years tend to suppress Northeast Monsoon activity, often leading to below-normal rainfall across southern India.
If this subdued trend persists, rainfall deficiency could emerge as a concern for farmers in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where the Northeast Monsoon is crucial for rabi cropping, irrigation, and water storage.
Trending: Delhi Air Quality Worsens Sharply in October; Dharuhera Tops List of India’s Most Polluted Cities
Trending: ISRO Makes History: ‘Bahubali’ LVM3 Rocket Powers India’s Heaviest Satellite CMS-03 into Orbit
Skymet is India’s most accurate private weather forecasting and climate intelligence company, providing reliable weather data, monsoon updates, and agri-risk management solutions across the country.
