Monsoon July 2026 Forecast: Below-Normal Bias Over Delhi, Rajasthan, Stronger Rainfall Signals for Bihar, Bengal
Key Takeaways:
- July 2026 rainfall likely at 95% of LPA, indicating a slightly below-normal month
- Equal 40% probability of normal and below-normal rainfall → high variability
- Eastern India to receive better rainfall activity during active phases
- North, West & Central India may face rainfall deficits
The Southwest Monsoon 2026 is expected to enter its core phase in July, but with a slightly below-normal performance, with rainfall projected at 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
In simple terms, July may bring active spells but inconsistent distribution, with some regions performing well while large parts of the country experience rainfall shortfall.
Image: Skymet
What Do the Probabilities Say? (July Outlook Explained Simply)
The rainfall outlook for July reflects a clear tilt toward weaker conditions:
- 40% probability of Below Normal rainfall
- 40% probability of Normal rainfall
- 20% probability of Above Normal rainfall
This indicates that while normal rainfall remains possible, there is an equally strong likelihood of below-normal conditions, highlighting uncertainty and variability during the peak monsoon month.
Rather than a uniformly strong monsoon phase, July is expected to witness intermittent active and weak spells, leading to uneven rainfall distribution across regions.
Image: Skymet
Where Will It Rain More or Less? (State-wise & Regional Outlook)
The spatial distribution for July indicates an overall rainfall departure of around -5%, reinforcing a slightly below-normal month at the national level.
- Above-normal rainfall zones: Parts of Eastern India, including Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal, are likely to receive enhanced rainfall, supported by monsoon systems moving inland from the Bay of Bengal.
- Normal rainfall regions: The interior Peninsular region, including Telangana, interior Karnataka, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, is expected to witness largely normal rainfall, maintaining regional balance.
- Below-normal regions (key concern): North, West, and Central India, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh, are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, contributing to the seasonal deficit.
- Western Ghats: Unlike a typical peak monsoon signal, rainfall may remain moderate rather than excessively strong, with variability in intensity.
- Northwest India: A low-confidence zone persists, indicating higher uncertainty and fluctuating rainfall patterns.
- Northeast India: Rainfall is expected to remain near normal to slightly subdued, without a strong excess signal.
Overall, the pattern suggests a shifted and uneven monsoon core, where eastern regions remain active while large parts of the country experience weaker-than-usual rainfall.
What Does This Mean for India?
The July outlook suggests a mixed impact on agriculture and water resources. While eastern India may benefit from active rainfall, deficits across north, west, and central regions could impact crop progress and soil moisture conditions.
Reservoir levels may see uneven gains, improving in some regions but remaining below expectations in others. At the same time, localized flood risks cannot be ruled out in eastern parts during active spells.
Quick Look: Major Weather Events of July 2025
July 2025 witnessed a sharp transition from extreme heat to an active yet uneven monsoon, marked by contrasting weather events across the country.
Image: Skymet
Heatwave Retreat & Storms:
The prolonged heatwave eased by early July, triggering thunderstorms and lightning over parts of North India.
Heavy Rain & Flooding:
Intense monsoon spells led to heavy rainfall and flooding across Central and North India, with multiple low-pressure systems driving widespread activity.
Rainfall Deficit in East & Northeast:
Despite active monsoon conditions elsewhere, parts of East and Northeast India experienced below-normal rainfall, affecting agricultural activities.
Precursor to Mountain Impacts:
Continuous rainfall towards the end of the month saturated hill regions, leading to landslides and travel disruptions.
Final Takeaway
July 2026 is expected to be a weak and uneven peak monsoon month, characterised by below-normal bias, regional contrasts, and inconsistent rainfall distribution, rather than a uniformly strong monsoon phase.
Related Articles:
