Monsoon Retreat To Begin Soon: Withdrawal Line May Reach Delhi By Mid - Week Next

Key Takeaways:

• Southwest monsoon withdrawal is likely to commence around September 19, with western Rajasthan showing favourable conditions for retreat.
• Jaisalmer, Barmer, Bikaner and Phalodi have recorded no measurable rainfall for the last 7-10 days and are likely to turn completely dry from September 20.
• A pronounced anticyclone over Central and West Rajasthan from September 21 may support further withdrawal towards Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
• A likely tropical cyclone over the Bay of Bengal next weekend could influence the subsequent pace and timeline of monsoon withdrawal across India.
• Forecast Validity: Next one week.

The monsoon withdrawal is likely to commence in about the next 24 hours. The scheduled date, as such, is 17th September, and the withdrawal process will be starting well within the time limits. It would have been ideal if the process started on 20th September, but the precursors to the official announcement indicate 19th September as the likely date. There is a chance of very light rains over the extreme western border posts tomorrow, coinciding with the withdrawal timelines. However, withdrawal of the monsoon from any region does not mean complete cessation of rainfall thereafter. Broadly, the specific area should follow the stipulated criteria to facilitate the declaration of the retreat of the monsoon.

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The essential conditions for monsoon withdrawal include the absence of layered clouds, cessation of rainfall, increase in temperature, drop in humidity levels and reversal of the wind pattern. Border posts of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer, Barmer, Bikaner and Phalodi have not received any measurable rainfall for the last 7-10 days, but there were scattered clouds and associated very light activity in some areas. These parts are likely to dry up completely from 20th September onwards and stay so for the subsequent one week or even more. The anticyclone over Central and West Rajasthan will become quite pronounced from 21st September onward. It may dictate further withdrawal from most parts of Rajasthan and take the line of withdrawal to parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi as well during the next week.

The withdrawal of the monsoon has always been retrospective and has rarely been a smooth process. Sudden leaps and long pauses are familiar with the process of withdrawal. This time, the scenario will become more complicated due to a likely storm coming up over the Bay of Bengal. The first tropical cyclone of the season is expected to evolve over the central Bay of Bengal around next weekend. The cyclonic circulation is likely to enter the Bay of Bengal tomorrow as the remnant of the weather system over Thailand and Myanmar. A low-pressure area is expected to form by Sunday/Monday over the North Andaman Sea. The system will spend a few days over the sea and strengthen into a storm.

The landfall of this system and its track over deep inland will decide the further timelines of withdrawal from the central and western parts of the country. The capital city, Delhi, may witness a timely retreat of the monsoon around its normal date of 25th September.

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