Light Rainfall Over Mumbai For Next One Week: Monsoon Withdrawal Unlikely In September
Image: AI-Skymet
After the downpour last weekend, monsoon rains have slowed down in Mumbai. This was very much on the predicted lines. Airport observatory Santacruz recorded just 1mm rainfall yesterday. The total for the month has reached very close to the monthly normal of 341.4mm. Another 6mm rainfall will suffice to meet the target. The rainfall will largely remain light and fleeting during the next one week. At best, short spells of moderate showers could happen in some areas, but without any inconvenience to the public.
Mumbai gets monsoon rainfall under the influence of monsoon systems forming over the Bay of Bengal. Once these systems move inland to reach the hinterland of Maharashtra and the bordering area of Madhya Pradesh, the intensity and spread of rainfall start increasing. Currently, the remnant circulation of one such system lies over the Marathwada region in the medium levels of the atmosphere. However, this is not only a weak feature but also likely to get diffused further and shift away as well.
There is another weather system likely to come up over the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation will enter the Bay of Bengal from the Myanmar region on 21st Sep 2025. While this circulation will meander over the North Bay of Bengal for the next 2–3 days, another circulation will track the same path from Myanmar’s Gulf of Martaban on 24th Sep. The two systems together will supplement the force and move inland as a strong system on 26th September. The system will trace its path through and through the interiors of Maharashtra on the subsequent two days, on 27th and 28th September.
The weather activity will increase in scale to cover South Coastal Gujarat and North Konkan between 27th and 29th September. Since the model predictability goes low after a lead time of 4–5 days, the forecast will need a fresh look after the system gets placed over the Bay of Bengal. Notwithstanding the variability, if any, monsoon activity is likely to be vigorous over the region in the closing days of September. Under such conditions, southwest monsoon is unlikely to withdraw from Mumbai in this month. Otherwise also, the earlier date of 29th September for retreat of monsoon from Mumbai stands revised to 08th October.
