Pre Monsoon Peak Rainfall-Important Lead For Southwest Monsoon
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Pre-monsoon weather activity to intensify across many parts of India in late April
- Rainfall likely to continue into the first week of May 2026
- Northern, eastern, northeastern and southern states to witness thunderstorms and showers
- PMPR trend hints at timely southwest monsoon arrival over mainland India
Pre-monsoon weather activity is likely to increase over many parts of the country starting in the last week of April 2026. The rainfall activity will spill over into the first week of May 2026 as well. It is likely to be a staggered activity for most parts of the country, outside Gujarat and the Konkan region. Pre-Monsoon Peak Rainfall, popularly termed as PMPR, has viable linkages with the arrival of the southwest monsoon season. There is no hard and fast rule, but it is surely an important forecasting hint based on past records. As a thumb rule, monsoon arrival over the mainland supposedly happens about 40 days after PMPR.
Western disturbances will keep a good amount of weather activity across the northern mountains during the last week of April and continuing thereafter. An east-west trough is likely to establish all along the Indo-Gangetic plains from Punjab and North Rajasthan to the last post of Bihar and North West Bengal, starting 26th April. This will keep the typical pre-monsoonal weather activity covering northern and eastern states like Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal till the end of April.
Multiple factors will join together to keep Northeast India under active pre-monsoon conditions. An east-west trough in the Assam Valley, a cyclonic circulation over central Bangladesh, and an anticyclone over Head Bay will lash the entire northeast region with fairly widespread rain and thundershowers, embedded with scattered heavy rainfall between 26th April and 2nd May 2026. The weather activity will spill over to cover coastal parts of Odisha.
The seasonal north-south Peninsular India trough will be oscillating east-west to keep the weather activity covering a large area between 27th April and 2nd May 2026. Scattered thunderstorms, lightning and showers will cover parts of Telangana and Maharashtra. More significantly, rain and thundershowers will occur over North and South Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Kerala and the interiors of Tamil Nadu.
Going by the teleconnection of PMPR and southwest monsoon, the arrival over the mainland has a lead time of about 40 days. Taking a clue from the correlation, monsoon may arrive just in time without any substantial delay. The timely arrival of the monsoon, spreading across the landmass, quenches the thirst of soil and soul alike. It brings felicity to the parched Deccan rivers and ferocity to the Himalayan ones. It awakens dormant fields to resurrect life in India.
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