Rainy Weekend For Delhi: Light-Moderate Showers Likely

Key Takeaways:

• Delhi remained largely dry in the past 24 hours, while isolated intense showers affected parts of Noida, Ghaziabad and Faridabad.
• Brief light to moderate showers may occur over Delhi/NCR, particularly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
• Rain and thundershowers are expected to increase in spread and intensity over the weekend, with temperatures dropping to around 33°C (±1°C).
• Drier northwesterly winds are likely from Monday, reducing monsoon showers and raising temperatures by 3°-4°C next week.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

Most parts of the Delhi area remained dry in the past 24 hours. There were some sporadic showers over Noida, Ghaziabad, Faridabad and adjoining parts yesterday evening. The sharp and intense showers in Noida slowed traffic and troubled commuters, albeit only for an hour or so. With the paucity of rains over Delhi during the last few days, day temperatures are on the rise and have been hovering around 36°C for the last four days. Base station Safdarjung recorded a maximum temperature of 35.8°C, about 1.6°C above normal. Light rain and showers are likely over Delhi and its suburbs tomorrow and the day after. There is a chance of light and fleeting showers for a short duration today as well.

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The monsoon trough is the main trigger for Delhi rains around this time. The weakened low-pressure area over Northeast Madhya Pradesh and the neighbourhood is controlling the western end of the monsoon trough. It is now running slightly north of Delhi and passing through Firozpur, Meerut, the centre of the low, Bankura and Digha, before dipping into the Bay of Bengal. The axis of the trough is not very far from the city and, therefore, may trigger light to moderate showers for a brief duration over Delhi/NCR, more likely during the late afternoon and evening hours.

The low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh is expected to break up over the same region. It is likely to get subsumed and merge with the monsoon trough. Another cyclonic circulation, currently lying over the Northwest Bay and coastal parts of Odisha and West Bengal, will shift further over land during the next 24 hours. The orientation of the monsoon trough will then be governed by its position during the subsequent days.

The trough is likely to come quite close to Delhi over the weekend. Rain and thundershowers are expected with increased spread and intensity tomorrow and Sunday. The day temperature will drop to about 33°C (±1°C) during the weekend.

The freshly formed circulation over the Bay of Bengal will not travel deep over land. From Monday onwards, the circulation will shift eastward and remain confined to West Bengal, Bangladesh and the Head Bay. Delhi and adjoining parts are likely to be swept by drier northwesterly winds. As a result, monsoon showers will deplete and the mercury will rise by 3°-4°C during next week.