Rajasthan Weather Update: Heavy Rains Return After Dry Spell, Flood Risk and Crop Relief Ahead of Monsoon Withdrawal
Rajasthan, after enduring a prolonged dry phase, has finally received a much-needed spell of monsoon rains. Over the past 48 hours, several districts have experienced heavy to very heavy downpours, resulting in localized flooding, crop damage, and a significant boost in seasonal rainfall figures.
A Roller-Coaster Monsoon Season
The 2023 southwest monsoon began strongly across Rajasthan.
- June and early July: The state witnessed widespread rainfall, with many districts recording excess to large surplus figures. By mid-July, multiple cities had already exceeded their long-period average rainfall.
- Late July to mid-August: Conditions changed dramatically. Weather systems from the Bay of Bengal consistently tracked westward into Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Vidarbha, South Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and North Maharashtra, leaving Rajasthan largely dry.
Weeks without significant rain led to drought-like conditions, with reports suggesting over 50% crop damage, sparking fears of a severe agricultural crisis.
Weather Systems Reviving Monsoon Over Rajasthan
The recent revival is attributed to two active weather features:
- The monsoon trough axis has shifted northwards, currently running through Ganganagar and Churu.
- A cyclonic circulation persists over northwest Madhya Pradesh, while another lies over west Rajasthan.
Together, these systems have triggered intense rainfall across eastern and southern Rajasthan, extending into central and western districts.
- Kota and Jawai Dam: Reported three-digit rainfall within just 24 hours.
- Jodhpur, Pali, Phalodi, Barmer, and Jaipur: Experienced moderate to heavy spells.
- Several low-lying areas: Faced waterlogging and flash flooding, while rivers and dams recorded sharp rises in water levels.
District-Wise Forecast
- Widespread Moderate to Heavy Showers: Alwar, Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur, Jaipur, Kota, Bundi, Baran, Bhilwara, Udaipur, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Dungarpur, Ajmer, Tonk.
- Scattered Rainfall: Jodhpur, Barmer, Bikaner, Churu, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Sikar, Jhunjhunu.
- Light to Moderate Showers: Jaisalmer, which typically remains drier at this stage of the season.
Rainfall intensity is expected to gradually reduce after August 28, likely marking the final widespread spell of the season.
Seasonal Outlook
The southwest monsoon typically begins withdrawing from western Rajasthan around September 17, with full-scale exit progressing afterward. Considering this timeline, the current wet spell may be the last major round of relief before the rains retreat.
Impact on Agriculture
- For farmers, this late revival has come as a critical lifeline:
- Soil moisture levels are improving.
- Reservoirs and groundwater tables are being replenished.
- Late-sown crops are expected to see renewed germination in some regions.
Although the earlier dry phase caused substantial crop losses, the ongoing rains are expected to stabilize standing crops, recharge water reserves, and uplift farming sentiment ahead of the rabi season.
Final Note
After a worrisome dry spell, Rajasthan is once again under the influence of active monsoon systems. While heavy rains have sparked flooding concerns in some areas, they have simultaneously brought much-needed relief for agriculture. The rains are expected to last until August 27–28, likely serving as the final widespread spell before monsoon withdrawal in mid-September.
