The southwest monsoon has already withdrawn from the northern parts of the country. The stream has exited the complete range of northern mountains and the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi. It has also vacated most parts of Gujarat and west Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon current had started retreating from the border areas of Madhya Pradesh with Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh. The line of withdrawal passes through Veraval on the western end and Shahjahanpur on the eastern flank. Courtesy of a series of monsoon systems, both on the eastern and western fronts, further withdrawal had been stalled for over 10 days. The recent unseasonal but widespread rainy spell over northern and central parts of the country will end soon, making way for the resumption of withdrawal.
The cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea has weakened. Though the remnants of the system are likely to move eastward for some time, it is expected to remain at a very safe distance from the coastline of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The leftovers of the system will get diffused over the deep sea in the next 2–3 days. In any case, the residual storm components are likely to head westward again and move closer to the Oman and Yemen coasts.
On the eastern side, there is a likelihood of a cyclonic circulation forming over the north Bay of Bengal on 8th October. This feature will meander over the same area for the subsequent 3–4 days and ultimately may fizzle out or, at best, move northeast as a feeble circulation or trough. It is very common for northeast India to continue with monsoon activity well past 10th October and cease around 15th October.
In the absence of any fresh weather systems across the seas and mountains, the monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from the remaining parts of northern, western, and central India. It is expected to retreat from the remaining parts of Gujarat, the whole of Maharashtra (including Mumbai), Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh between 10th–11th October. By this time, it is also likely to vacate most parts of Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and contiguous parts of West Bengal. Withdrawal from northeast India may have to wait and will get completed in the last leg, along with the remaining parts of the country. This may happen around 15th October 2025. Some rainfall is likely over parts of south Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana between 12th and 16th October; however, these showers will be a precursor to the arrival of the northeast monsoon. Monsoon easterlies are likely to set up over the Bay of Bengal, coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, and penetrate over the landmass during this period.
