Light Rainfall Over Delhi: Mercury Rise Around The Weekend
Key Takeaways:
- Delhi-NCR is likely to remain mostly dry with weak monsoon conditions through this week.
- Light and scattered showers may occur around July 9 as the monsoon trough temporarily shifts closer.
- Rising humidity and above-normal temperatures are creating uncomfortable, sultry conditions across the region.
- Weak rainfall during early July may increase pressure on the second half of the month to recover the rainfall deficit.
- Forecast Validity: Next 2 to 3 days.
Delhi-NCR remained mostly dry over the last 24 hours. Both day and night temperatures stayed around 2°C above normal levels. The combination of rising temperatures and high humidity continued to create sultry weather conditions across the region. A similar weather pattern is likely to persist through this week.
There is a slight possibility of light rain between July 7 and July 10, but no major rainfall activity is expected. Monsoon conditions will remain weak, and at best, light and short-duration showers or drizzle may affect isolated parts of the capital and adjoining suburbs.
The monsoon depression over Chhattisgarh has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area. This system has pulled the east-west monsoon trough south of Delhi, keeping it at a safe distance from the capital and limiting significant weather activity. As the system moves across West Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, the trough is expected to move closer to Delhi, especially around July 9. During this period, some scattered showers may occur over and around the city.
Thereafter, as the system weakens further over the foothills of West Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the monsoon trough will shift north of Delhi once again. Rainfall activity is likely to remain minimal or completely absent until mid-July. A gradual rise in temperatures is also expected during this phase.
The first week of July has recorded weaker-than-normal rainfall for Delhi. July is typically the second rainiest month for the capital, with an average monthly rainfall of 195.8 mm. Notably, Delhi has recorded normal or above-normal rainfall during July for the last eight consecutive years. However, the first week of this month has remained below par, with only 11.8 mm rainfall recorded so far.
If rainfall activity remains inadequate during the second week as well, the pressure will increase on the latter half of July to compensate for the deficit. Any meaningful revival of monsoon rains over Delhi-NCR will depend on the formation of a fresh weather system over the Bay of Bengal or the influence of an active western disturbance over the northern mountains.
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