It has been disappointing season in terms of winter rains, particularly in January and February. In fact, January had some record breaking figures, with the cumulative countrywide rainfall standing at mere 2.9 mm against the normal average of 19.2 mm.
Country recorded mere 15.4 mm of rain during the first two months of the year. This is the second lowest rainfall since 1902 when the country had recorded 11.6 mm in January and February.
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Now as we enter March, weather models are indicating some relief on card. According to statistics, it is not necessary that March would also same track. It is a mix and match situation, but with more inclination towards normal rains which is 30.9 mm.
Following are some instances of rainfall performance during March when January and February recorded very less rainfall:
Please Note: Rainfall amounts are in mm
The above-mentioned figures indicate that four out of six years recorded above normal rainfall during March, when the winter failed during the time span of January and February.
As per the numerical weather model by Skymet Weather, country is most likely to witness normal rainfall. Not only this, there would be some pockets in the country that would see excess showers as well.
Weathermen are of the view that second half of the month would more rains as compared to the first half.
March is considered to be the changeover period for rainfall pattern across the country. According to meteorologists at Skymet Weather, it is in this month when we start witnessing gradual changes from winter rains to pre-Monsoon pattern.
Rain spell would be now more of short but intense. Number of weather elements would now increase. Thunderstorm, hailstorm and squally would start making appearance frequently.
The special feature of March rains is that showers are not evenly distributed across the country. It is a mix of deficit, normal and excess rains.
For example, March 2017 recorded 29 mm of rains against the average of 30.9 mm. +/- 19% of the average rains is considered to be normal. The major contribution came from Northeast India which was 60% excess. Meanwhile, North India was deficit by 40%.
Image credit: The Hindu
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
