Two low pressure areas have developed over Bay of Bengal in the month of March. Both of them reached up to the threshold of becoming a cyclone but one fell short of it. A cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over South Andaman Sea and adjoining area by April 5th. Under its influence a low-pressure area may develop by 6th April. Low pressure area may subsequently intensify into a depression and a deep depression and may move in north westerly direction towards east coast of the country. Weather systems developing in the month of April usually follow North westerly route initially and recurve in northeast direction.
There are many factors responsible for the strengthening of a weather system in Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea or any ocean around the globe. Sea surface temperatures must be warm and more than 28 degree Celsius. Vertical wind shear should be light to moderate with a strong poleward outflow and prolonged sea travel. All these parameters seem to be in place which may help this particular weather system to intensify into a cyclone. We will be keeping a close watch over the system, and we'll keep updating.
Although depressions and cyclones tend to recurve in north easterly direction during March and April before reaching east coast of India. But there are always exceptions. Cyclone Fani formed over Bay of Bengal on April 26 in 2019. It made a landfall over Puri in Odisha on May 3rd.