Close on the heels of cyclone Tauktae, another cyclonic storm is likely in the Indian Seas. However the action this time shifts to the Bay of Bengal where cyclone Yaas, named by Oman, is likely to form just before the onset of monsoon over mainland Kerala.
A cyclonic circulation is forming on 21st May over the Gulf of Martaban or Gulf of Mottama as it is called locally due to the proximity of the port city of Mottama. Following this, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the Northeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining North Andaman Sea on 22nd May. This will intensify to a depression on the 23rd morning and deep depression on the same day in the evening. Very rapidly, the weather system is likely to intensify into a tropical storm on 24th May over Northeast and adjoining North Bay of Bengal. The cyclone is expected to move northwest and head for North Odisha and the neighboring West Bengal coast.
There is no consensus among various numerical models on its likely movement and track over the North Bay of Bengal. More clarity will come in the subsequent 48 hours. In an eventuality of the storm moving towards Odisha, it may intensify further to a severe cyclonic storm due to sea travel in favorable environmental conditions. In such a scenario, the landfall will be likely at the late hours of 25th May or early 26th May. The weather system is under observational watch for the next 72 hours.
The leads to this storm as cyclonic circulation and the low-pressure area is likely to initiate the process of onset of southwest monsoon. It is expected to arrive over the South Andaman Sea and the Southeast Bay of Bengal tomorrow, sticking to the scheduled timeline. Further, it will advance to Sri Lanka also on the due date. The upcoming storm will not corrupt the monsoon current and its scheduled onset over the Indian mainland.