The vast stretch of Indian subcontinent with varied terrain makes it vulnerable to floods during the Southwest Monsoon right from the hills and valleys to the coastal areas and the plains. Moreover, even the arid regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan are not left behind and witness flooding rains on some occasions.
The active Monsoon drivers remain the systems forming in the Bay of Bengal and the insitu ones, troughs (inclusive of the Monsoon trough and the off shore trough) along with Western Disturbances running across the Western Himalayas.
Even in the absence of such systems, Monsoon has its own momentum to give torrential rains over some parts of the country.
This Monsoon season, Northeast India has already seen two bouts of floods. The northern hills, particularly Jammu and Kashmir also had a taste of flooding rains resulting in loss of lives, disruption in yatras, communication and travel issues.
Flooding rains were also seen along the coast including Dahanu which saw over 350 mm of rains, Mumbai saw consecutive days of hefty rains. Valsad in Gujarat also witnessed torrential rains which resulted in flood like conditions. Moreover, Nagpur was inundated with heavy rains which caused waterlogging in many parts.
Presently, Monsoon is in active phase across the country since the last 48 hours and similar conditions will prevail for another 48 hours. These conditions are occurring under the influence of a trail of weather systems persisting in the Bay of Bengal moving to Central India and then further up to Rajasthan as well.
Along with this, the active off shore trough is also persisting along the West Coast. Both the systems will play a major role in carrying the rains forward raising a threat of flood like conditions in some parts of the country.
Thus, central parts including Madhya Pradesh, parts of Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan may see heavy rains which may cause flooding in some parts. In fact, heavy rains may also cause flooding in parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
During this phase, both the branches i.e. the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal will remain active and give enough moisture to these systems resulting in heavy rains. An interactive session of these two branches may be seen over the trio of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat resulting in hefty rains.
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Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com