Updated on December 12, 2018: Depression shortly in Bay, may become cyclone; Chennai, TN, Andhra gear up for heavy rains
As expected, the low pressure area in Bay of Bengal has now intensified into a well-marked low pressure area and is now seen over Central Bay of Bengal.
Conditions continue to be favourable for the system to induce a depression in the next 24 hours. In fact, we expect it to strengthen into deep depression and further into a cyclonic circulation in the subsequent 48 to 72 hours. However, if formed, the cyclonic storm would not sustain for very long period.
The system has already given widespread rainfall over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The sea conditions have become rough to very rough and fishermen are advised not to venture out in deep sea waters.
At present, the system is far away from the India mainland for giving any rains. For now, rains would be confined to Andaman and Nicobar Islands which might see moderate to heavy rains for the next 24 hours.
The system is likely to reach near the coast around December 14 and by December 15, we can expect some heavy rains all along the Tamil Nadu coast, particularly northern parts along with southern coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh. Chennai and Puducherry would also see heavy rains during this time.
For more read here: Heavy Chennai rains this weekend as depression likely in Bay of Bengal
Updated on December 11, 2018: Depression shortly in Bay, seventh cyclone of the year likely
The low pressure area over Equatorial Indian Ocean and Central Bay of Bengal has become more marked. As per the weathermen at Skymet Weather, we can now expect the system to induce a depression most likely in another 24 hours.
However, the system is travelling in lower latitudes, which slows down the intensification of the system. But we need not worry as the other factors needed for intensification are in place. The system is moving in a favourable zone for gaining more strength where heat potential is sufficient, with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the range of 29°C to 31°C and wind shear is also moderate.
Besides this, Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is linked with good rains over the Indian region when in close proximity is also in Indian Ocean. It is presently in phase 3 with fair amount of amplitude and is likely to stay put there till December 16. Thereafter, even when MJO shifts to phase 4 between December 17 and 20, it would continue to be in favourable zone.
Thus, with all the above factors present, we expect present low pressure to induce a depression, then a deep depression and finally a feeble cyclonic storm. If this happens, it would be seventh cyclone of the year.
Moving in west direction, the expected depression would be heading Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. By December 14, the system would start impacting the weather over the coast and rain would commence all along Coastal Tamil Nadu.
Rains are likely to peak around December 15-16, which might see some heavy to very heavy rains over Chennai by weekend. Gradually other parts of the state would also start receiving rains as the system travels inside the coast.
Updated on December 10, 2018: Low pressure forms in Bay of Bengal, to intensify into Depression shortly
As predicted by Skymet Weather, a low pressure area had formed in Bay of Bengal on Saturday. The system is presently seen over Equatorial Indian Ocean and Central Bay of Bengal.
Weather conditions are conducive for the system to become more marked. It is most likely to induce a depression in the next 24 to 48 hours. However, whether the system would intensify further, we will have to wait and watch.
Weather models are indicating that the system would continue to move in west direction. As of now, the weather activity under the influence if this low pressure area would be confined to sea only.
Updated on December 9, 2018: Fresh Depression likely in Bay of Bengal this week
After a keeping quiet for brief period, Equatorial Indian Ocean has once again become active. As a result, we could now see scores of weather systems penetrating in Bay of Bengal. Latest example was the system that had given good rainfall over Tamil Nadu and some heavy rains in Coastal Andhra Pradesh in the last couple of days.
At present also, a cyclonic circulation is seen over Southwest Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast.
Not only this, there is another system brewing in Southeast Bay of the Bengal in close proximity of Equatorial Indian Ocean, which is likely to make an appearance around December 9. This system seems to be a promising one and would revive Northeast Monsoon once again.
Weather models are indicating that the system would be travelling in favourable conditions of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. There are fair chance of system first inducing a low pressure area and thereafter a depression.
According to weathermen, system would be travelling from east to west direction towards Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. We expect, the system would be near the coast around December 13-14. Till then, rainfall would be confined to sea. As it nears the coast, we would see rains picking up pace along the coastline.
However, there is a week’s time in between and thus, there are fair chances of the system either hitting the coast or it might just skirt the coast. Chances of system fizzling out before reaching the coast also cannot be ruled out.
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