Southwest Monsoon was slightly late on making onset over Madhya Pradesh, almost by ten days. As a result, the initial phase remained rain deficit over the entire state.
In fact, on July 3, East Madhya Pradesh is rain deficit by 21%. But, West Madhya Pradesh recorded excess rains by 8%.
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As such, East Madhya Pradesh is supposed to see more rains compared to western chunk of the state during all the four months from June to September.
This occurs when Monsoon system develop and move across the central region, extending its stay from East Madhya Pradesh to western parts of the state. In view of this, the eastern parts of the state have more average rains.
As of now, the state has been experiencing fairly widespread rains since the last few days of light to moderate intensity. In fact, isolated heavy spells was also reported.
This pattern is most likely to continue for the next few days on account of a Monsoon circulation developing in North Bay of Bengal and neighborhood, which is likely to travel inland across Chhattisgarh to East Madhya Pradesh.
Even today and tomorrow, good showers are anticipated due to zone of convergence winds from Arabian Sea and northern plains. Else, no significant weather system is there.
In a span of 24 hours; Rewa recorded rains to the tune of 26.4 mm, Umaria 22 mm, Dhar 14 mm, Khandwa 13 mm, Satna 9 mm, Pachmarhi 6 mm, Seoni 4 mm and Indore 3 mm.
When the circulation developing in Bay would move inland, with this the convergence zone would also become more prominent.
Therefore, fairly widespread showers can be expected primarily covering East Madhya Pradesh and thence towards western parts of the state.
After 48 hours, this system would come over Madhya Pradesh, giving heavy to very heavy rains over the region.
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