India’s nodal weather agency, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded its maiden forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2017 from 96% to 98% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
Though it still maintains that Monsoon 2017 would be normal wherein rains vary from 96% to 104% of LPA.
The seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of LPA over Northwest India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 99% of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over Northeast India all with a model error of ± 8%.
This increase is based upon the decline in probability of El Niño till the end of the year. As per IMD’s weather model-MMCFS, neutral ENSO conditions are likely till end of this year. Secondly, IMD is also foreseeing development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is mostly linked with good Monsoon rains and also negates the effect of El Niño up to some extent.
On the monthly scale, IMD predicts that the rainfall over the country is likely to 96% of LPA for July and 99% of LPA during August. This means second half of the Monsoon season will be better than the first one.
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However, Skymet Weather is still maintaining to its Monsoon 2017 forecast which is marginally below normal at 95% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of LPA. According to us, country wide rainfall for the July stands at 94%, while for August it is 93%. This indicates that first half of Monsoon is likely to better than the second half.
Must Read: Skymet Weather forecasts below normal Monsoon for India in 2017
In fact, majority of global weather agencies are still predicting 60% chances of development of weak El Niño conditions during the second half of the season.
Moreover, there is no clear signal of development of positive IOD. Last year, weak La Niña conditions had prevailed during the Monsoon 2016, which is associated with good Monsoon rains but still country managed to record 97% of LPA.
Image credit: The Hindu
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