Bay of Bengal (BoB) was an active basin last year during March. Early in the pre monsoon season, a cyclonic circulation formed over Strait of Malacca on 28th Feb 2022 and later became a low pressure area over the same region. Subsequently, aided by presence of MJO and favourable environmental conditions, the system intensified in to a depression first and deep depression later. Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued a cyclone alert and storm advisories. After maintaining intensity for 24hrs, due to dry air entrainment, the deep depression weakened to a depression. Alert was withdrawn and the system weakened to a low pressure area on 06th March 2022. This system affected weather over Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.
Another system formed over South BoB on 20th March and intensified in to a deep depression on 21st March 2022. The weather system headed for Myanmar, cutting across Bay Islands and North Andaman Sea. JTWC issued yet another cyclone alert. However, the deep depression weakened the next day and cyclone alert was withdrawn on 22nd Mar 2022. Later, it struck Myanmar coast as low pressure area.
Cyclones in the month of March are not very common. Even if they form, mostly weaken over the sea. Such systems do have a history of threatening the eastern coastline but without any serious damage. Only 5 cyclones have formed in the last 121 years, all of them over BoB. Arabian Sea is not at all a favourite for storms during March.
Presently, a cyclonic disturbance is brewing over equatorial parts of South China Sea. It is manifested as convective cloud clusters in that area. It is likely to become more marked and move in the close proximity of Mekong Delta and Indo China Peninsula by 01st March 2023. Moving further east, it is expected to reach Malay Peninsula and Strait of Malacca on 02nd March. Later, it will travel across South Andaman Sea and extreme South BoB, in the close proximity of equatorial region.
Weather systems very close to the equator do not intensify much. However, favourable sea conditions, at times, give a push and take these disturbances to the stage of depression and deep depression. Additional trigger is required to upgrade to a storm. This weather system travelling across Strait of Malacca need to kept under observation. No authentic prediction is feasible at this point of time.
