Area wise, Madhya Pradesh is one of the largest states of the country. It is divided into two divisions, namely East Madhya Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh, with both the divisions having nearly equal distribution. Come Monsoon season, the state as a whole becomes vulnerable to flooding rains.
Climatologically, East Madhya Pradesh receives more rains than West Madhya Pradesh, with seasonal average of 1050 mm and 876 mm, respectively.
The reason for this kind of bifurcation of rains can be explained via a number of reasons that are listed below:
Location of the state: Madhya Pradesh, being the center-most state is located such that mostly all the Monsoon systems are dragged through Madhya Pradesh. These systems are responsible for Monsoon rains and thus, the entire stretch from East to West Madhya Pradesh is covered by these Monsoon systems, triggering more incessant rains over the western half of the state than its eastern counterpart.
Duration of weather systems: Monsoon systems generally move with a limited speed of 8 to 10 km per hour and therefore, system take nearly two days to clear the entire stretch of Madhya Pradesh. It could be longer at times and thus, have the potential to drench the state on many occasions.
The Monsoon system, after crossing the East coast is supported by Bay of Bengal current till they reach East Madhya Pradesh. Thereafter, the Arabian Sea current also gets activated. As the system reaches West Madhya Pradesh, both the currents interact and strengthen the system, giving good rains.
Western Disturbance: The passage of any strong Western Disturbance also fuels the flooding rains over West Madhya Pradesh. However, as it travels eastwards, its influence also reduces. The stronger the system, slower it would move.
Water bodies: The water bodies in the form of rivers also play a significant role in adding to flood conditions over the state. The state has plenty of river bodies and heavy rains result in raising the water levels of these rivers, forcing them to swell and break their banks and flood the cities.
Frequency of weather systems: The frequency of weather systems also affects rains over West Madhya Pradesh. It is due to the trail of various weather systems that the state receives good Monsoon rains, with heavier falls over parts of West Madhya Pradesh which is the case at present as well. The region is being affected by strong cyclonic circulations that have resulted in heavy rains over the state.
As per Skymet Weather, the state is expected to experience back to back weather systems that would give some more Monsoon showers over the state, mainly over West Madhya Pradesh.
After the current system moves away, there is another system lined up in the Bay of Bengal that will affect the state. Not only this, another cyclonic circulation is in queue which would continue to give hefty rains over the state. Thus, the situation is expected to remain grim for the state for at least another nine to ten days. Hence, people of Madhya Pradesh are advised to exercise caution and watchful against flooding.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com