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Chances of La Niña bleak; neutral conditions to prevail this year

September 20, 2016 4:45 PM |

la nina 2

Sept 20, 2016 04:40 PM

   


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Updated on July 26, 2016 03:30 PM (IST): El Niño’s journey to La Niña remains slow

Only marginal changes in the sea surface temperatures have been witnessed on either side of the Niño 3.4 region during the last one week. However, these changes are insignificant.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino

We are halfway through the Monsoon season and some significant change has to come in the Pacific temperatures for a spurt in the Monsoon rains over India. Moreover, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues to be negative. It is not likely to be positive anytime soon.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at the moment still in a favorable zone for the Indian Monsoon. Nevertheless, it has to visit other places per say. The El Niño condition always gets more weightage than the IOD or MJO when it comes to the Monsoon rains in India.

The sea surface temperatures have their own gestation period. They take time to cool down or heat up. Therefore, the change from El Niño’s to La Niña has to be a slow process.

Skymet Weather would like to reiterate that announcement of La Niña will not be possible before winter of 2016-17.

Updated on July 19, 2016 12:30 PM (IST): El Niño steps into threshold neutral

For the first time, the Niño 3.4 index has come down below the threshold value of -0.5˚C.

The final El Niño Advisory continues with the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remaining near or below average in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Niño 3.4 index has turned negative and has come down to -0.6°C. However, the Niño 4 (the western Pacific Ocean region) remains stagnant and still shows a positive value.

Niño 1+2 is the region lying in proximity to the coast and has come down to 0.0°C.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

ONI Index

La Niña is characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.

The ONI Index in the quarter of April-May-June was 0.7. For the first time it came down below 1 but still not reached the threshold of 0.5˚C. At the end of the next quarter of May-June-July, we expect the threshold value to be reached. La Niña is confirmed only when the ONI index will be -0.5˚C or below for five consecutive quarters. This would be possible only by fall of 2016-17.

Thus, La Niña is favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chances of full-fledged La Niña during fall and winter of 2016-17.

Updated on July 12, 2016 10:30 AM (IST): El Niño takes baby steps towards threshold neutral

The final El Niño Advisory continues with the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remaining near or below average in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Niño 3.4 index has turned negative and continues to remain around -0.4°C. No change has been observed in its temperature profile during the last week.

The Niño 4 (the western Pacific Ocean region) also remains stagnant and still shows a positive value.

Niño 1+2 is the region lying in proximity to the coasts has come down to 0.2°C.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino Index

The La Niña Watch continues and we expect a full-fledged La Niña only after the Indian Monsoon season.

The ONI index in the quarter of April-May-June was 0.7. For the first time it came down below 1 but still not reached the threshold of 0.5˚C.

 

Here’s a look at the ONI index for overlapping quarters of 2015 and 2016.

El Nino Index

At the end of the next quarter of May-June-July, we expect the threshold value to be reached. La Niña will be confirmed only when the ONI index will be -0.5˚C or below for five consecutive quarters. This would be possible only by fall of 2016-17.

 

Updated on July 6, 2016 9:30 AM (IST): El Niño continues its journey towards threshold neutral 

The prevailing El Niño has had a prolonged swaggering walk over the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean for the last two years. Weather scientists across the world have been tracking its development since then.

Now, the final El Niño Advisory has been declared. The equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near or below average in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Niño 3.4 (region which is linked to the India Monsoon) index has turned negative and remains around -0.4°C, as on July 5.

The Nino 4 (the western Pacific Ocean region) index has also shown marginal drop but is still a bit warm.

Nino 1+2 is the region lying in proximity to the coastal areas. Thus, this region experiences the maximum variation. This week, its index is once again showing a positive value.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El nino

 

Therefore, we can conclude that during the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted in the western Pacific and weakened in the central Pacific. And, the extent of negative anomalies fluctuated in the eastern Pacific.

The La Niña Watch continues and we still expect a full-fledged La Niña only after the Indian Monsoon season.

 

Updated on June 28, 2016 4:30 PM (IST): El Niño approaching threshold neutral value

El Niño has been the most talked about weather phenomenon for more than two years now. Indian Monsoon has witnessed two back to back droughts under its influence. This oceanic-atmospheric weather event can have massive impact on the Indian Monsoon as well.

The Niño 3.4 (region which is linked to the India Monsoon) index had turned negative (-0.1°C) on May 30, 2016 after about 2 years. Next week, the value dropped to -0.2°C.

In fact, the Niño index had been witnessing a rapid decline since March 2016 when the value had dropped to 1.9°C from a high of 2.5°C on January 25, 2016. The Niño 3.4 was last seen as neutral on August 18, 2014. This was the time when the prevailing El Niño was evolving and later it corrupted two Indian Monsoons.

However, the Niño 3.4 kept increasing from the second week of June and touched 0.2°C. Now, the index has come down to -0.4. For the first time we can see the Niño 3.4 index approaching the threshold value.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

el nino

 

The Nino 4 region, western Pacific Ocean, is still a bit warm. We could blame it for reduced rainfall activities in the onset phase of Monsoon in India. The other regions in the Pacific have come down to negative values. The Niño 3.4 index will soon touch the threshold value of -0.5°C.

As of now, the La Niña watch is on. It will continue to develop throughout the Southwest Monsoon season in India. La Niña will be declared only when overlapping 3-months season will reach the threshold value of -0.5°C or less for 5 consecutive terms. This could be possible only after September or during fall of 2016-17.

 

Updated on June 21, 2016 11:30 AM (IST):  Indian Monsoon to improve as El Niño turns neutral

All is not over with the ongoing El Niño. The “little boy” continues to hound the Pacific Ocean and weather across the globe. The present El Niño has been termed by scientist worldwide as one of the strongest on record. Such a strong one is not going to turn neutral so soon.

Yes, it is true that ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean. But, it is on the positive side of neutral values in the last couple of readings. Oceans do take time to respond and marginal changes are normal.

During the last week, the ocean has seen marginal rise in temperatures. Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El nino

The Niño 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, showed negative values in the last week of May to first week of June. Thereafter, it kept rising marginally and has now come up to 0.2°C. The Niño 4 region (western Pacific Ocean) has also shown marginal warming. In fact, all the four regions witnessed marginal rise.

Monsoon in India is still deficient. El Niño could easily be blamed for below normal rains in India. As of June 20, the country has received 70.7 mm of rain against the normal rains of 90.6 mm. This brings the cumulative rainfall deficiency in the country to 22%.

This could be the reason deficit June rainfall in India. After the first 13 days of the month, the cumulative rainfall for the country is deficient to the tune of 21%. We will witness better Monsoon rains after June. As of now, the Niño effects are getting diminished gradually.

 

Updated on June 14, 2016 12:00 PM (IST): Remnants of El Niño keeping Monsoon rains deficit in India

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean but all is not over. The El Niño saga is not completely over for now. As have been reiterated by Skymet, oceans do not respond rapidly to changes. This is even more evident during the reversal phase from El Niño to Neutral to La Niña.

The ocean takes time to finally settle down for good. Minor variations take place in the seas surface temperatures, close to the neutral phase.

El Niño is gradually weakening and last week the positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were seen diminishing across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, now the ocean has seen marginal rise in temperatures.

The Niño 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, showed negative values during the last two weeks. But, now it has come up to 0.1°C once again. The Nino 4 region (western Pacific Ocean) has also shown marginal warming. This could be the reason deficit June rainfall in India. After the first 13 days of the month, the cumulative rainfall for the country is deficient to the tune of 21%.

The Nino 1+2 region has once again witnessed a large variation due to its close proximity to the coast. Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino index

After the month of June, conditions will turn favorable for El Niño to diminish completely. The entire Pacific will cool down and temperature anomalies will also show negative values but establishment of La Niña is a long drawn process.

The La Niña watch is on and it will continue to develop during the Monsoon season in India. La Niña will be declared only when overlapping 3-months season will reach the threshold value of -0.5°C or less for 5 consecutive terms. This could be possible only after September or during fall of 2016-17.

The surface temperatures of the ocean are more susceptible to changes. They are generally vulnerable to changes in the oceanic atmosphere and can change with the smallest trigger. Temperatures are more constant in the lower levels. As of now the upper levels are also cooling which is a good sign for the establishment of La Niña.

Here’s a look at the Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) weekly average temperature anomalies:

Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies

This value has significantly decreased since late January with negative values evident since early March.

 

Updated on June 7, 2016 04:00 PM (IST): El Niño index turns negative but lingers on

El Niño is gradually weakening and the positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can be seen diminishing across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

Latest El Nino

The Niño 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, came down to the negative value last week. It has now touched -0.2°C. The Nino 4 region (western Pacific Ocean) is still a bit warm. This could be the reason for reduced rainfall activities in the onset month of June in India. We have said earlier as well that the Nino 1+2 region witnesses a large variation due to its close proximity to the coast.

Stabilization of the ocean takes fairly good amount of time. Monsoon rains in India will gain strength only after the Ocean stabilizes firmly.

Though the Nino 3.4 index has come down to a negative value of -0.2°C, we cannot declare the end of El Niño. We can declare the end of El Niño and beginning of the neutral phase only when the 3-month running average of the SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region touches the threshold of 0.5°C.

A look at the table below will help to explain this statement further:

Nino Index

When the threshold value of 0.5°C is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons, El Niño is declared. This is the Pacific warm which is colored in red. The prevailing El Niño officially began from the February-March-April period in 2015.

The March-April-May period in 2016 still has not met the threshold of 0.5°C. Now, we have to wait and watch if the April-May-June period is successful in doing so.

La Niña will be declared only when the threshold value of -0.5°C is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons.

 

Updated on June 1, 2016 01:00 PM (IST): El Niño index drops, La Niña not far behind

After almost 2 years, the Niño 3.4 index has turned negative. On May 30, 2016 the Niño 3.4 index was recorded at -0.1°C. In fact, Niño index had been witnessing a rapid decline since March 2016 when the value had dropped to 1.9°C from a high of 2.5°C on January 25, 2016.

It was last seen as neutral on August 18, 2014. It was the time when the prevailing El Niño was evolving and later corrupted two back-to-back Monsoons.

Click here to read the story: El Niño index turns negative, Pacific cooler than normal 

As of now, positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are diminishing across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

Nino Index Latest

 

Updated on May 24, 2016 04:30 PM (IST): El Niño continues to decline, inches closer to neutrality

The prevailing El Niño has further weakened, getting more closer to neutrality. In fact, Niño 3.4 which is associated with the Southwest Monsoon has already attained the neutral value of 0.2°C.

This is for the first time since January 2015 that Niño 3.4 levels have gone so down.

Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies also indicate the same as they continue to decline across equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino figures

According to Skymet Weather, El Niño continues to weaken gradually and we expect it to touch zero level by next week.

However, El Niño is declared to be neutral only when overlapping 3-months season average ( Oceanic Niño Index) will reach between -0.5°C and 0.5°C. The last Oceanic Niño Index for the months February, March and April is still settling at fairly high value of 1.6°C.

 

Updated on May 17, 2016 11:30 AM (IST): El Niño draws closer to threshold neutral

The prevailing El Niño continues to weaken gradually. In fact, it is drawing closer to the threshold neutral value.

However, positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the Central and Eastcentral Pacific Ocean. During the last fortnight, Nino 3.4 witnessed a drop of 0.5°C, from 1.1°C on April 25 to 0.6°C to the present date.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

el nino index

Quite understandably, the region Nino 3.4 is witnessing a gradual decline. The lower layers of the Pacific Ocean are cooling at a rapid rate and slowly impacting the water surface areas as well. In other words, the temperatures in the thermocline region are cooling faster and its effects are gradually being seen in the surface waters.

Monsoon 2016

There is a possibility that the phase when El Niño reaches neutral level will coincide with the onset of Southwest Monsoon in mainland of India.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is still negative but its value is steadily rising. The SOI gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. It is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Basically, the sustained negative values of the SOI below about −8 indicates El Niño episodes.

Most importantly, the trade winds are returning back to normal. This generally happens as we draw closer to the onset phase of Monsoon in India. Also closer home, the Indian Ocean is fairly warm. Thus, we can infer that the prevailing weather parameters are indicating a promising Monsoon 2016.

La Niña Watch

The La Niña watch is on and it will continue to develop during the summer and Monsoon seasons of Northern Hemisphere. La Niña will be declared only when overlapping 3-months season will reach the threshold value of -0.5°C or less for 5 consecutive terms. This could be possible only by or after September 2016.

 

Updated on May 10, 2016 2:00 PM (IST): El Niño stress still remains high but on declining note 

After witnessing some good drop, all of the Niño's indexes have retained their respective levels in the week gone by. Nino 3.4 that is associated with the Indian Southwest Monsoon maintained its level at 0.8°C.

However, Nino 1+2 that had reached to -0.3°C registered a major rise and became positive once again at 0.4°C. According to Skymet Weather, close proximity to land exposes Nino 1+2 to large variations.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El-Nino Statistics

As reiterated by Skymet Weather, we expect all Nino indexes to drop further, particularly Nino 3.4. But El-Niño stress will prevail for some more time as the Oceanic Nino Index is still settling at fairly high value of 1.6°C.

Though it is on reducing note but these values continue to be the highest on record since 1950.

ONI Index

We expect El-Niño to become neutral only after the onset of Southwest Monsoon over the Indian mainland. El-Niño is considered to be in neutral phase when it settles between 0.5°C and - 0.5°C.

Updated on May 3, 2016 4:00 PM (IST): El Niño declines, to become neutral soon

For the first time, all of the Niño indexes have settled below the value of one, including Nino 3.4 that governs the Indian Southwest Monsoon.

Nino 3.4 has seen a gradual drop since last week from 1.1°C to 0.8°C. Out of four Ninos, two have observed slight rise, while other two have witnessed marginal drop.

Nino 1+2 that had touched -0.6°C last week registered marginal increase and settled at -0.3°C. As reiterated by Skymet Weather, Nino 1+2 experiences the maximum variation as it lies just close to the coast.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El-Nino Statistics

 

As we proceed, we expect a drop in all Nino indexes, particularly Nino 3.4. However, El-Niño will prevail for some more time.

Looking at the conditions, El-Niño is likely to reach the neutral stage during the first week of June. El-Niño is considered to be in neutral phase when it settles between 0.5°C and - 0.5°C.

 

Updated on April 26, 2016 2:00 PM (IST): El Niño stress remains, heading gradually towards neutrality

For the first time, one of the El Niño indexes has reached the negative stage. Nino 1+2 is the region lying just next to the coast. It has touched -0.6°C this week. Earlier we had mentioned that this region experiences the maximum variation, all thanks to its proximity to the land. Rest of the regions in the Equatorial Pacific are still positive with Nino 3.4 witnessing a slight drop to 1.1°C.

Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino index

The Nino 3.4 region is associated with Indian Monsoon and seems like it will drop only marginally by the next week.

We still maintain that Nino 3.4 will remain positive till the onset phase of Monsoon 2016. Southwest Monsoon sets in the Bay Islands by May 20 and comes closer to the Indian mainland by May end. Till then El Niño will remain in place.

Updated on April 19, 2016 11:00 AM (IST): El Niño retains strength amidst prevailing La Niña Watch 

The ENSO alert system status still reflects an El Niño Advisory and La Niña Watch. El Niño is still prevalent but seems to be weakening now. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius: El Nino Index

The Nino 1 + 2 region, lying just next to the coast has taken a sudden dip. This region has been showing large variations. It had taken a dip to about 0.5°Cin middle of February and then again reached 1.5°C on April 4. It has now come down to 0.1°C. Marginal variation in temperatures has been witnessed in other regions except for Nino 3.4. Seems like it will drop only marginally by next week. As have been explained earlier by Skymet that this region is associated with Indian Monsoon rains. Therefore, we can say that Monsoon will commence amidst El Nino conditions, though weak.

Updated on April 15, 2016 12:00 PM (IST): NOAA issues La Niña Watch while El Niño prevails

After months of speculation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has finally issued a formal watch for a fall arrival of La Niña. It is also being said that there is a 70% chance for its occurrence. This necessarily does not mean that the sea surface temperatures have come down substantially to witness La Niña conditions. As Skymet has said even earlier, El Niño still prevails and will continue till the onset of Monsoon 2016. We can expect La Niña conditions to develop within next six months, i.e. only at the fag end of Monsoon 2016. El Nino is a global phenomenon and a lot of international agencies closely follow its development and progress. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) under NOAA is one such agency which monitors El Nino right from its initial indications to its end and issues the following advises. These are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System.

EL Niño or La Niña Watch - EL Niño or La Niña Watch is issued when conditions are favourable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.

EL Niño or La Niña Advisory - This is issued when EL Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.

EL Niño existing – This alert comes up if for one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5°C or greater is observed in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (lying between 5°N to 5°S and 120°W to 170°W) and it is expected that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met.

La Nina existing – Similarly, La Niña is expected to exist when for one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of (-) 0.5°C or greater is observed in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and it is expected that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met.

Final El Niño or La Niña Advisory: This advisory is issued after El Niño or La Niña conditions have ended. With respect to the Indian Monsoon, out of 26 El Niño events on record since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral ENSO and 40% by La Niña years.

Updated on April 12, 2016 5:00 PM (IST): El Niño declining at slow pace  

El Nino Image

Skymet released its Monsoon forecast for 2016 on April 11, giving above average Monsoon rains to the tune of 105% of long period average (LPA) of 887 mm. The India Meteorological Department also released its forecast, close on the heels of India’s leading private weather forecast agency Skymet. This has come as a cheerful development, especially when the El Niño scare is also finally giving way to neutral conditions. For the first time, all the four El Niño indices are showing a decline. Nevertheless, positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the Pacific Ocean.

This has come as a cheerful development, especially when the El Niño scare is also finally giving way to neutral conditions. For the first time, all the four El Niño indices are showing a decline. Nevertheless, positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the Pacific Ocean.

The table will below will substantiate this statement. Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius:

El Nino Indices

Irrespective of the oceanic conditions, be it El Niño, Niña or Neutral, Southwest Monsoon never brings evenly distributed rainfall in the four-month-long Monsoon season. In the recent past, even the best performing Monsoons have left behind pockets of deficient rainfall. A good Monsoon does not necessarily mean evenly distributed rainfall across the country. Similarly, this year Tamil Nadu, Northeast India and parts of Karnataka will be at moderate risk to remain rain deficient.

Click here to read Skymet's Monsoon 2016 forecast

Updated on April 8, 2016 11:00 AM (IST): El Niño will not reach neutral stage before onset of Monsoon 2016 

El Niño is basically a huge volume of exceptionally warm waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, almost equivalent to the size of the Mediterranean Sea.

The sea generally witnesses a huge amount of upwelling regularly. For the sake of repetition, we would like to mention that El Niño this year is the strongest and most powerful one, wherein the Pacific temperature has remained above normal by more than 2˚C from fall of 2015 till now. In fact, only thrice before this, the El Niño Index has risen above 2˚C. This was registered for the first time in 1972-73 when the highest Niño Index was 2˚C. In the year 1982-83 the value had risen to 2.1˚C and in 1997-98 it was 2.3˚C.

In the year 1972-73, the maximum value had reached 2˚C but it had come down to 1.2˚C by the time we reached the quarter of January-February-March. Even in the previous two above mentioned El Niño years the ONI Index had come down to 1.8 ˚C. This is the first time that the temperatures have not come down yet. Here’s a look at the ONI Index for overlapping quarters of 2015 and 2016.

Here’s a look at the ONI Index for overlapping quarters of 2015 and 2016. ONI Index latest

Oceans are not good conductor of heat and therefore, they neither absorb nor release the heat quickly. More often, the declining trend of temperature is very gradual. Analyzing the present situation we can say that El Nino will not become neutral before the onset of Monsoon 2016. The rate of decline of the temperatures in the ocean waters will be slow and remain above normal even at the onset phase of Southwest Monsoon. Either side of Nino 3.4 is still warm. The figure below shows the current status of the surface temperatures anomalies in degree Celsius since

The figure below shows the current status of the surface temperatures anomalies in degree Celsius since first week of March. El NIno

Impact of El Nino on Marine life El Nino not only impacts weather but also the marine life. South American countries like Peru have seen a phenomenal decrease in fishes and other marine animals. This is because the huge volume of warm water in the surface suppresses the rate of upwelling. With this the sea animals remain in the warm surface waters, deprived of the marine food lying at the bottom due to absence of regular upwelling.

Click here to read the story, El Nino responsible for record number of shark attacks in 2015 

Also read, El Nino to destroy parts of Great Barrier Reef

Updated on March 26, 2016 12:00 PM (IST): El Nino seems to be dwindling now

El Nino 2014-15 has been established to be the strongest on record. It began evolving in 2014 and reached its peak by Monsoon 2015. After bringing back to back droughts and making 2015 the hottest year on record, it now seems to be dwindling. The last fortnight and current scenario indicates a level of neutrality. Click here to read the full story, Strongest El Nino on record dwindling now

Updated on March 6, 2016 2:00 PM (IST): Highly uncertain El Nino keeping Weather agencies on tenterhooks

Weather agencies across the globe are still pensive mood looking at the growing uncertainty of El Nino conditions during the Indian Monsoon this year. Earlier, scientists and meteorologists across the world came to an agreement of a likely strong La Nina during the Southwest Monsoon season. However, the consensus has now shifted to a state of divided opinion now.

Click here to read the full story, Growing uncertainty of El Nino

Please Note: Any information picked up from here should be attributed to  ‘skymetweather.com.’

Image credit - techtimes.com

 






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