The Monsoon line (Northern limit of Monsoon), after passing through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Wasim, Damoh, Sultanpur on 21st june, continues to be stagnant. Last week saw a slow progress of both the eastern and the western arm of the Monsoon line however, this week the pace is expected to be speedy along the eastern arm and still quite slow along the western.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, conditions look favorable for the eastern arm to cover entire Uttar Pradesh, i.e. remaining parts of central and west U.P, and also cover capital city Delhi around 25th June. As a result cloudy and rainy weather in Delhi and entire northern plains is expected to continue till the 25th June. Rain activity may decrease over the northern plains from 26th June.
The western arm on the other hand, will make further progress into Madhya Pradesh bringing some rain in the capital city Bhopal, which has been witnessing dry weather for the last five days. Monsoon rain will also pick up in Seemandhra, Telangana, Marathwada and Vidarbha, where Monsoon rain has been little so far. Gujarat will continue to be unlucky in terms of rain as the Monsoon line will just about touch the state, this week too.
The Monsoon surge has been week over Mumbai for over a week now and the last time Mumbai observed some good showers was on 16th June when 32 mm of rain was recorded at Santa Cruz. So far Kerala and Karnataka coast has been the main center of rain activity in the last few days. Though, rainfall will now start to decrease in coastal areas of Karnataka and Kerala, as the monsoon surge is likely to lose its strength.
Heavy showers have lashed West Bengal and Northeast India in the last two days. Rain in Cherrapunji has been between 200 to 350 mm and about 50 to 100 mm in Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar. According to Skymet's forecasts, intensity of rain may reduce over West Bengal and Bihar, while moderate rain with isolated heavy spells will continue in Northeast India for the next five days.
The deficiency in the National Cumulative Average Monsoon rain reduced from a whopping 42% till the 19th June to 36% on 22nd June. Rain deficit reduced on a whole in South India from 24% on 19th June to 20% till 22nd June. Region wise, rain deficit is currently the highest in Central India, of about 47%, whereas the state of Gujarat is reeling under extreme dry weather conditions and the deficit here has mounted to 82% from 78% till 17th June.
“The month of June will leave us with a deficit which will be nearly impossible to cover up. This week too rain will continue in many parts of India but will rarely be of its full strength”, says AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
