Cold wave condition is a very common phenomenon during January for most parts of Madhya Pradesh. On one hand, where Madhya Pradesh excels in recording low minimums during winters, on the other, it performs poor in terms of winter rains. In fact, rains remain confined only to northern and northeastern parts of the state and that too only if either an active Western Disturbance induces a Cyclonic Circulation over Northern Plains or the formation of south Trough that gives isolated light rains. Otherwise, rains are always a distant dream during winters over Madhya Pradesh.
Further, in the absence of any significant weather system, the state of Madhya Pradesh has been experiencing dry weather conditions since quite some time now. In fact, in the absence of any rains, rain deficiency was continuously being recorded at 98 % until January 16 for entire state.
Contrary to this, the state is performing very well in terms of winters. Since January 1, many parts of the state have been shivering under Cold Wave conditions. Although now minimums have increased to some extent and as a result Cold Wave conditions have abated most parts of the state.
Until yesterday, ‘Cold Day’ conditions were prevailing in isolated pockets of East Madhya Pradesh. However, today due to the increase in minimums, ‘Cold Day’ conditions have taken a backseat.
From January 20 onward we expect, an intense Western Disturbance to start affecting the western Himalayas. This is also expected to induce a Cyclonic Circulation over Rajasthan area. Due to this system, Northern Plains will also start receiving scattered rains.
We expect, light rains to commence over Northern districts of Madhya Pradesh on Jan 21. Places like Gwalior, Morena, Datia, Shivpuri, Tikamgarh and Guna may receive light showers. On Jan 22, rain belt will shift eastwards and districts such as Satna, Panna, Rewa, Sidhi and Singrauli may receive light rains. Weather will clear up thereafter.
However, we expect yet another spell of rains on January 24 to 26, over all the above-mentioned districts. Places like, Vidisha, Rajgarh, Sagar and Damoh will also get short spells of light rains. This second spell will be due to the formation of a ‘Confluence Zone’ over Northern parts of the state.
Day temperatures are likely to fall by 2 to 4 degree Celsius during the rainy spell. However, minimums are expected to increase by a few degrees over many parts of the state during the next few days.
So, now we can say that the dry spell is going to break for Madhya Pradesh, and scattered rains are going to approach.
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