Low Pressure Area To Form Over Bay Of Bengal: Vigorous Monsoon Likely
After a long pause of break-monsoon conditions, a low-pressure area will form soon over the Bay of Bengal. The last monsoon system was the remnant of Typhoon Whifa, which travelled as a low pressure/depression across the country. As a precursor to the new system, a cyclonic circulation will form over the northwest Bay of Bengal on 12th August. This will strengthen to a low-pressure area on 13th August. The system will nearly be stationary for two to three days over the sea and is likely to intensify into a monsoon depression before moving inland.
Monsoon trough and the monsoon systems over the sea are the main triggers for seasonal rainfall. There was a hiatus in the broad-scale seasonal weather activity on account of break-monsoon conditions, which is quite normal at this time of the season. The renewal of the monsoon commences with the appearance of a low-pressure area over the sea. In accordance with the typical revival, a low-pressure area is forming over the Bay of Bengal. The temporary lull of monsoon activity will rejuvenate, and widespread rainfall is likely over a large swath of the country.
Even while the system will remain parked over the sea between 12th and 15th August, the weather activity will start from the east coast and keep expanding the cover inland. Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, and Chhattisgarh will be the beneficiaries in the first lot. Strong and sturdy monsoon activity will sweep across the central parts and reach the farthest western end of the country in Gujarat.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and South Rajasthan. The wait for heavy rains over Konkan in general and the typical Mumbai monsoon burst in August will be over. Mumbai and South Coastal Gujarat will be swamped with monsoon fury, possibly the harshest of this season so far. Since the model accuracy drops with a lead time of about 4–5 days, the forecast will be kept under scrutiny. Meanwhile, the preparatory phase may begin to meet any eventuality of hazardous weather.
