Low Pressure Area To Form Shortly: Likely Intensify To Depression
Key Takeaways:
- A low-pressure area may form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal on February 14 and intensify into a depression by February 15–16.
- Sri Lanka could see heavy to flooding rains between February 16 and 19, with peak impact on southern and eastern regions.
- Unseasonal rain is likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala between February 19 and 21.
- Rain risk may affect the India–Pakistan T20 match in Colombo on February 15.
A cyclonic circulation has been prevailing over the equatorial region in proximity to the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB). Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region on February 14, 2026. The system will move westward and may intensify into a depression around February 15–16 over the extreme southern parts of the Bay of Bengal, close to the equator. It is expected to be a slow-moving system, tracking nearly due west across Sri Lanka, Comorin, and the Maldives. The proximity of this system may trigger some weather activity over the southernmost states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Upon intensification, the low-pressure system is likely to move closer to the east coast of Sri Lanka on February 15 and draw further nearer on February 16, 2026. The island nation is expected to witness inclement weather between February 16 and 19, 2026. Southern parts of Sri Lanka may experience flooding rains at a few places, exceeding 10 cm in 24 hours. The east coast and southern tip of Sri Lanka are likely to be affected more than other regions, while the west coast north of Colombo may escape the worst impact. However, Comorin and the Maldives are expected to remain in the core weather activity between February 18 and 22, 2026. Peak activity over Sri Lanka is likely on February 16 and 17, though peripheral effects in the forward sector may begin affecting weather as early as February 15.
As the system passes south of the Indian Peninsula, the southernmost states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala may receive unseasonal showers between February 19 and 21, 2026. Scattered showers are expected along coastal locations including Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tondi, Pamban, Tuticorin, Kanyakumari, Thiruvananthapuram, Alappuzha, Punalur, and Kochi. Interior parts of both states may also witness light to moderate rainfall during this period.
While the system moves across lower latitudes near the equator, an important fixture of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup is scheduled between India and Pakistan in Colombo on February 15, 2026. India has won the last five T20 encounters and will aim for a sixth consecutive victory. However, the proximity of the depression may increase the risk of rain interruption during the match. Locations along Sri Lanka’s southern tip—such as Yala, Matara, Hambantota, Tangalla, and Galle—have a higher likelihood of showers. Colombo, situated on the west coast at a slightly higher latitude (6.54°N, 79.52°E), may still experience rain or passing showers. Weather conditions will therefore remain a concern for the smooth conduct of the event.
