The weather situation is developing for heavy rains along the foothills and adjoining plains of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Incessant rains accompanied with strong winds and lightning strikes are expected between 09th and 12th July. Parts of Nepal and catchment areas are also going to rain heavily. Most rivers in Bihar will witness a rise in water levels to cross danger signs and threaten breach of embankments. These water bodies have a tendency to keep responding even after the rains recede due to the continuation of water flow in the catchment areas.
There is a cyclonic circulation over parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh and the monsoon trough is running south of its normal position passing across this circulation. However, this trough is showing a tendency to shift northward and run across the foothills of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This situation is conducive to heavy rainfall and extremely heavy in some areas along the trough. Few locations are susceptible to flood-like situations which include East and West Champaran, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Supaul, Saharsa, Araria, Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga, Madhepura, Purnea, Kishanganj, and Katihar. Sufficient measures and precautions need to be initiated keeping in view the limited time frame available.
Bihar as such has rained large surplus this season and this upcoming spell is going to inundate and waterlog the agri fields. Rains are going to be in excess of normal by a huge margin and an existing surplus of 58% may rise and reach 70% or beyond.
