Forecast of good rains in first fortnight of September, attributed to favourable MJO and multiple Monsoon systems, is expected to act as a bonus for kharif crops sowing and the overall performance of Monsoon 2015. According to Skymet, September holds high stake and performance of Monsoon depends on the rains in the last month of the Monsoon season after a bumper performance in June and almost normal one in July and August.
The month of August began with a countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency of 5%. Monsoon rains for the first six days were just a little below normal, barring August 5. Consequently, the rainfall deficiency went up and now stands at 6%.
The daily average rainfall in the first 10 days of August is quite high (9 mm). Only on August 5, the actual rain recorded by India was above this figure, at 10.2 mm. Therefore, the rainfall deficiency has been contained.
At present, Southern Peninsula is witnessing a rain deficit of 21%. This figure rings a bell of concern and South India will remain at risk by the end of the Monsoon season. However, rest of the three pockets performed pretty well. East and Northeast India recorded rainfall which was below by 9% than normal, rainfall in Northwest and Central India is below by 4% each. So far this season, the country has received 475 mm of rainfall against the normal average of 508.5 mm.
Monsoon 2015 vs Monsoon 2014
During the corresponding period last year, the countrywide rainfall deficiency was 18% and the month ended with rain 17% below normal. Therefore, rainfall throughout the month was just about normal. However, the month of September performed extremely well.
This year the performance of Monsoon has been much better. Courtesy - leftover surplus rainfall at the end of June when the country recorded excess rains of 16%. Monsoon rains were poor in July and the rainfall deficiency was 17%. As of now the countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency stands at 6%. This deficiency is expected to rise further during next few days as the country will receive below normal rains. According to the estimates by Skymet, August will receive 92% of the LPA rainfall of the month.
Image credit - BBC UK