Low pressure over Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) has become well marked now. It appears to be much more organized. It is centred around 7.2 degree North and 89.6 degree East, about 575 km southwest of Port Blair. With formative convective banding manifested in the satellite imagery, it resembles depression like structure. It may even become deep depression, sometime later tonight.
Well marked low is positioned in the favourable environmental conditions with very warm sea surface temperature and small vertical wind shear. With accelerated equatorward flow, potential for rapid development in to a tropical cyclone is rather high.
After achieving strength of a storm tomorrow, sometime later in the day, the maiden cyclone of the season will move over central BoB and adjoining North Andaman Sea. While over open sea, the storm will move northwestward till 12th May and strengthen to become severe or may be very severe category. The steering current and the westerly trough will make the storm recurve thereafter.
During the course of recurvature, coastline of North Odisha and West Bengal will fall within strike range, albeit mild, to witness cloudy sky, possibly strong winds and may be rains as well. Sea condition will be terribly rough for boats, trawlers and fishing vessels. The storm will head northeastward towards Bangladesh later in the day on 12th May.
Borderline areas of South Bangladesh and extreme northern parts of Myanmar will have to brace for the direct hit of Mocha. Actually, the point of impact on the coastline depends on the timing and area for commencement of recurvature. Chhittagong in Bangladesh has remained a favourite for landfall on many occasions. Cyclones Viyaru, Roanu and Mora made landfall over Chhittagong in May 2013, May 2016 and May 2017 respectively. No cyclone has hit Myanmar in the month of May for the last 15 years. Nargis was the last storm to hit South Myanmar on 02nd May 2008.
Initial assessment spares the Indian coast from any direct hit. Even, the centre of the storm should pass, keeping safe distance from Odisha and West Bengal coast. Broad area of coast between Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpya (Myanmar) looks more probable for landfall. It is bit early to predict the exact location for crossing of storm and more clarity will come only after commencement of recurvature.
