Punjab and Haryana are considered as breadbaskets of India for the wheat crop. The excess grain is targeted to cater to subsistence agriculture in some of the other states. There are a large variability and a strong correlation of yield with the Temperature (Maximum and Minimum), Rainfall and Sunshine hours. The crucial period is counted from mid-February to March-end.
The month of March is seen having large fluctuations in terms of rain. Excess rains are invariably accompanied with hailstorm and strong winds. Rains by itself may not damage the crops but high-velocity winds along with hail results lodging of standing crops thereby dropping the yield.
Punjab and Haryana both have scored a hattrick of excess and deficit rainfall in March over the last few years. After having a huge shortfall of more than 50% in 2013, the next three years from 2014 to 2016 observed a large surplus. The top of the table was the year 2015 when Punjab recorded rainfall of 117% of normal and Haryana stood rather tall with 464%.
But then came the downfall and the next three years from 2017 to 2019 remained highly deficit. The shortage was 80% in Punjab and 97% in Haryana in the year 2018.
It looks like, March 2020 is following the track record of 2015. As of March 24, Punjab is rain surplus with 234% and Haryana much ahead at 454%. There have been moderate widespread rains in the last 24 hours over the region. And it is not yet over and done for the remaining days of March. Another wet spell lasting over two days on 26th and 27th is likely for both the states. Possible hailstorm and strong winds, specially on 27th March could be damaging for the wheat crop.