Rain-Thundershowers Over Madhya Pradesh -Rajasthan: Hailstorm Likely
Key Takeaways:
- Unseasonal hailstorms have struck parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh repeatedly in recent weeks.
- A convergence zone triggered by western disturbance dynamics is driving thunderstorms and hail.
- Adverse weather will gradually shift eastward across North Madhya Pradesh.
- Weather activity is expected to ease after February 4, with broader clearance by mid-February.
Parts of Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh have been struck by unseasonal hailstorm activity twice over the last two weeks. The most affected regions included Ratlam, Neemuch, Mandsaur, and adjoining districts of Rajasthan. A similar situation has emerged once again, and parts of North and West Madhya Pradesh along with Southeast Rajasthan are likely to witness inclement weather activity over the next three days.
A Western Disturbance is moving across the hills of North India. An induced circulation is marked over Central Rajasthan and adjoining Madhya Pradesh. With this development, the seasonal anticyclone has been pushed eastward from Rajasthan to farther parts of Madhya Pradesh. The curved winds from the anticyclone and the induced circulation are meeting over the border areas of these two states. The resultant convergence zone is triggering thunderstorm activity, accompanied by isolated hailstorms and strong winds. Earlier, Ratlam and Mandsaur were the worst hit, and now Neemuch has emerged as the centre of adverse weather activity.
The dimensions of this convergence zone are not very large; however, a sizeable portion of North Madhya Pradesh and the border areas of Southeast Rajasthan remain under its influence. The weather belt will have a tendency to shift slowly eastward, covering more parts of North Madhya Pradesh while vacating the western areas. This activity is likely to occur between February 2 and February 4, 2026.
Places at risk of thunderstorms, strong winds, and hailstorms include Kota, Baran, Bundi, Jhalawar, Ratlam, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Gwalior, Guna, Ashok Nagar, Shivpuri, Bhind, Morena, and Datia. As the activity shifts eastward, additional locations such as Tikamgarh, Panna, Chhatarpur, Rewa, and Satna may also come under the influence of adverse weather.
Broad clearance across the region is expected between February 5 and February 8, 2026. While it is too early to be definitive, another round of similar activity appears possible on February 9 and thereafter.
