Skymet Weather forecasts normal Monsoon for India in 2018

April 16, 2018 3:30 PM |

According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 100% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

As per Skymet Weather, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:

• 5% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 20% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 55% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 20% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 0% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

Monsoon performanceOn a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:

June – 111% of LPA (LPA for June = 164 mm)

• 30% chance of normal
• 60% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal

July – 97% of LPA (LPA for July= 289 mm)

• 55% chance of normal
• 15% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal


August – 96% of LPA (LPA for August = 261 mm)

• 55% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 35% chance of below normal

September – 101% of LPA (LPA for September = 173 mm)

• 60% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 20% chance of below normal

To download Skymet Weather's Monsoon Forecast report, click here

To download Monsoon 2018 Forecast P.P.T, click here

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