Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea, low pressure areas have formed on either side of the coastline. The low pressure area over East Central BoB will now move west-northwestward towards South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The other low pressure area over East Central and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea will drift closer to Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Notwithstanding the continuing process of monsoon withdrawal, clammy spirit of scattered rain, though uncanny for some parts, will prevail for the next 5-6 days.
Low pressure area over the BoB will cross the coast in the next 24hr. To start with, coastal parts of West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will witness moderate showers and in the subsequent 48hr, the rain belt will cover Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana. Simultaneously, the low pressure in the proximity of Coastal Karnataka and Kerala will cause extremely wet spell over both the sub divisions for the next 3 days, albeit more intense on 15th and 16thOctober.
On 16thOct, both these systems will get aligned with north-south orientation over central and southern parts of the country. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of weather activity will increase, specially over Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh between 16-18Oct. Resultant increase in the speed and depth of easterly winds will extend the rainfall further to North India covering parts of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Very heavy rainfall is also likely over complete state of Uttrakhand on 17th and 18th October. Localized flooding, landslides and mudslides accompanied with strong lightening strikes are likely on these 2 days.
Another low pressure is also waiting in the wings to enter Bay of Bengal around 17thOctober. This weather system appears to be stronger than the current one. However, it will recurve early to largely affect West Bengal, Bihar and entire Northeast India. Bay of Bengal remains under close observation for any further development.
