A compact cyclonic circulation has formed over Lakshadweep Islands and the extreme southeast Arabian Sea. This is likely to shift closer to the coastline of Kerala tomorrow and further east over South Kerala and the adjoining sea, a day later. Practically, the system will meander in the close proximity of Kerala and Mahe. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over the state of Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands over the next 3-4 days.
There is also another cyclonic circulation on the other side, over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Southwest Bay of Bengal. The east-west trough joining these two systems is also enhancing the weather activity over the region. Circulation over Bay of Bengal will turn into a low-pressure area and is likely to strengthen the wind stream along the Kerala coast. The combined influence may trigger incessant and heavy rains over different parts of the state at different times, lasting till the weekend.
Heavy to very heavy rains may confine to the Lakshadweep region on the 21st and 22nd May. Isolated heavy rains are likely over southern parts of Kerala, as well. Moderate to heavy rains are likely over Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Alappuzha, Varkala, Kollam on the first two days, the 21st and 22nd May 2024. Spread and intensity may increase later on the 23rd and 24th of May. Heavy rains may extend, farther from the coast over deep inland. Locations at risk of heavy rains will include Kottayam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Idukki, Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram. The remnant effect with moderate showers may continue for the subsequent 48 hours. And, that is the time when monsoon onset gets nearer for the state.
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