Heavy Rainfall Over Madhya Pradesh-Rajasthan: Localised Flooding Likely

Key Takeaways:

• Heavy rain will continue over Madhya Pradesh and extend into East Rajasthan.
• Localized flooding is possible across several parts of West Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
• Rainfall intensity and spread are expected to soften around 12–13 August.
• A fresh Bay system will shift the heavy-rain belt eastwards after 13–14 August.
• Forecast Validity: Till Aug 14.

The low-pressure area over the Madhya Pradesh region has triggered heavy downpours over some pockets of West Madhya Pradesh. Rainfall in excess of 100 mm in 24 hours inundated Hoshangabad, capital city Bhopal, Rajgarh and Pachmarhi. Heavy rains lashed the Bundelkhand region as well. Guna recorded 76 mm of rainfall during this period. More heavy rains are likely over Madhya Pradesh and will extend to parts of East Rajasthan as well.

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The low-pressure area will move westward and is likely to come over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan. The western end of the monsoon trough will also join the circulation of the low-pressure area. Under the combined influence, heavy rains are expected over parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan over the next two days.

The places at risk of localized flooding will include Ujjain, Indore, Neemuch, Ratlam, Shajapur, Sehore, Vidisha and Bhopal. Heavy rains will reach Gwalior, Guna, Shivpuri, Sheopur and Ashoknagar as well.

Adjoining parts of Rajasthan will have chances of a deluge in some pockets. The places bearing the threat of heavy rains will include Dungarpur, Jhalawar, Pratapgarh, Chittorgarh, Baran, Banswara, Bundi, Kota, Tonk and Sawai Madhopur.

The intensity and spread of rains will soften on 12th and 13th August. Rains will vacate Rajasthan on 13th August but continue over parts of Madhya Pradesh.

Subsequently, another low-pressure area is likely to form over the Northwest Bay and adjoining areas on 13th–14th August 2026. The heavy rainfall belt will shift eastward over West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Heavy rains will spill over to East Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh as well.

The monsoon trough is expected to shift closer to the foothills of the Himalayas from 17th–18th August onward. Accordingly, the central and western parts of the country will enter a lean phase of monsoon activity.