Heavy Rains Likely Over East Uttar Pradesh-Bihar: Flood Fury May Compound Further

Key Takeaways:

• East Uttar Pradesh's seasonal rainfall shortfall has narrowed to 6%, while Bihar's deficit stands at 35%.
• Rainfall activity is expected to reach East Uttar Pradesh on 08th September and Bihar on 09th September.
• The rain belt is expected to remain quite active across both sub-divisions between 09th and 11th September.
• Additional rainfall may further raise river levels and aggravate the existing flood situation across vulnerable areas.
• Forecast Validity: Next 3 to 5 days.

Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh were two sub-divisions persistently having large deficits till halfway through the monsoon season. Though the countrywide rains were not all that good, the seasonal shortfall got arrested at 35% for East Uttar Pradesh and 43% for Bihar. Courtesy of the track of the monsoon systems, the distribution of rainfall was good over the eastern parts of the country during the second half of August and continued during the first week of September as well. As of today, East Uttar Pradesh has a meagre shortfall of 6% and Bihar has improved the stats to -35% rainfall. It is a fairly good recovery. These numbers are likely to get further better over the next one week.

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The low-pressure area over Southwest Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh region has moved to Central Uttar Pradesh, albeit on a weakening note. It is likely to shift further east and stay good over East Uttar Pradesh and North Bihar till this weekend. The rains will move first to East Uttar Pradesh on 08th Sep and spread to cover Bihar the next day, on 09th Sep 2026. The intensity and cover of the rain belt will stay quite decent over these two sub-divisions between 09th and 11th Sep. Scattered to isolated, moderate to heavy rains may continue even thereafter for the next few days.

Parts of East Uttar Pradesh and North Bihar are already struggling with the rising levels of the rivers. Most of the perennial streams have their origin in the Himalayas and flow through these areas, across the Nepal region. The additional rains along the foothills of Nepal, coupled with the consistent monsoon activity over the next few days, will resist any improvement in the flood situation over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. On the contrary, the water levels may rise further to worsen the situation. While the seasonal rain deficit may improve the monsoon status, the sorrows of already flood-affected areas may heighten further.

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