South Peninsula has been witnessing weaker monsoon rains during July so far. The rain deficit of 3% in the South Peninsula at the start of the month has now grown to 11%, halfway through the month. The shortfall in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh has grown large. The surplus of Tamil Nadu got consumed and is reaching double-digit deficiency very soon. Margins of shortfall have increased for Kerala from -7% at the start of the month to -15% now. Coastal Karnataka has done better than the rest and has a surplus of 13% in seasonal rainfall.
Conditions are favourable for these two sub-divisions to have heavy rainfall in the next 3-4 days. The westerly stream along the southern half of the Western Ghats is picking up strength and meeting head-on with the coastline. South Coastal Karnataka and North Kerala are likely to have very heavy downpours in the next 48 hours.
Heavy rains lashed Coastal Karnataka for the last three days, and Kerala joined in to get intense showers since yesterday. Mangalore and Karwar recorded 213 mm and 124 mm rainfall in the past 24 hours. Honavar, Kozhikode, and Karipur registered 68 mm, 76 mm, and 64 mm rainfall respectively during this period.
Must Read: Low Pressure Intensify To Depression : Heavy Rains Over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
Very heavy rains are expected over Kasargode, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Kudulu, and Thalassery over the next two days. The southern half of the state will have moderate showers reaching Thrissur, Ernakulam, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, and Kovalam. Heavy rains are expected over Mangalore, Karwar, Honavar, and adjoining parts of Coastal Karnataka. Moderate rainfall with isolated heavy downpours is likely in the subsequent 72 hours, between 19th and 21st July 2025. The intensity and spread are likely to reduce on 22nd and 23rd July.
