Skymet Weather Forecasts Region Wise Monsoon Probabilities for India in 2019

May 14, 2019 3:49 PM |

Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agri risk monitoring company, had released its forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2019 on April 3, 2019 predicting below normal rains to the tune of 93% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of long period average (LPA).

As a sequel to pan-India forecast, Skymet has now come up with quantitative distribution of Monsoon rainfall across the four regions of the country on May 14, 2019. Region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8%.

Monsoon 2019 seems to make a timely onset. However, weather models are indicating towards a weak onset over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a sluggish start to Monsoon 2019.

Monsoon 2019

Arrival of Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands will be on May 22, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Simultaneously, covering some parts of Northeast India as well. This will be preceded by intense pre-Monsoon rains over Kerala.

According to Mr. Jatin Singh, Managing Director, “All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula. Onset of Monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow.”

According to Skymet, Monsoon 2019 probabilities for JJAS are:

0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)

0% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)

30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)

55% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)

15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

Monsoon 2019

On a region-wise scale, the precipitation forecast is as follows:

East and Northeast India: 92% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 1438 mm)

The region contributes maximum amount of share and accounts for 38% of Monsoon rainfall. Geographical risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, while marginal for Northeast India. It is likely to see below normal rains of up to 92% of LPA this season.

5% chance of excess

10% chance of above normal

25% chance of normal

50% chance of below normal

10% chance of deficient

 

East and Northeast India

Northwest India: 96% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 615 mm)

The active Monsoon duration is the least over the region. It contributes only 17% of the seasonal rainfall. The region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96% of LPA. Hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi- NCR.

10% chance of excess

10% chance of above normal

60% chance of normal

15% chance of below normal

5% chance of deficient

Northwest India

Central India: 91% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 976 mm)

Central India records 976 mm of Monsoon rains, contributing second highest share of 26%. The region is expected to be lowest of all, with seasonal rains at 91% of LPA. Odisha and Chhattisgarh are likely to be rainiest of all, while Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be poorer than normal.

5% chance of excess

5% chance of above normal

20% chance of normal

50% chance of below normal

20% chance of deficient

South Peninsula: 95% of LPA (LPA for JJAS = 716 mm

Peninsular India too remains at small risk this season, with the expected rains at 95% of LPA. The regional records for 716 mm of rains that accounts for 19% of the total Monsoon. North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema may see poor rainfall. Kerala and Coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better.

5% chance of excess

10% chance of above normal

60% chance of normal

15% chance of below normal

10% chance of deficient

South India

Image Credit: IndiaTimes

Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com






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